Model Accuracy Data for Post-Construction Evaluation of Forecast Accuracy in Minnesota
2017-03-13
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Statistics
View StatisticsCollection period
2007
2009
2009
Date completed
2009
Date updated
Time period coverage
1962-1991
Geographic coverage
Twin Cities Metropolitan Area
Source information
Data produced from Minnesota Department of Transportation traffic forecasts (various), as cited in column B of the datafile.
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Title
Model Accuracy Data for Post-Construction Evaluation of Forecast Accuracy in Minnesota
Published Date
2017-03-13
Author Contact
Parthasarathi, Pavithra K.
ppavithra@gmail.com
ppavithra@gmail.com
Type
Dataset
Abstract
This research evaluates the accuracy of demand forecasts using a sample of recently-completed projects in
Minnesota and identifies the factors influencing the inaccuracy in forecasts. The forecast traffic data for this study
is drawn from Environmental Impact Statements (EIS), Transportation Analysis Reports (TAR) and other forecast
reports produced by the Minnesota Department of Transportation (Mn/DOT) with a horizon forecast year of 2010
or earlier. The actual traffic data is compiled from the database of traffic counts maintained by the Office of
Transportation Data and Analysis at Mn/DOT. Based on recent research on forecast accuracy, the inaccuracy of
traffic forecasts is estimated as a ratio of the forecast traffic to the actual traffic. The estimation of forecast
inaccuracy also involves a comparison of the socioeconomic and demographic assumptions, the assumed networks
to the actual in-place networks and other travel behavior assumptions that went into generating the traffic forecasts
against actual conditions. The analysis indicates a general trend of underestimation in roadway traffic forecasts
with factors such as highway type, functional classification, and direction playing an influencing role. Roadways
with higher volumes and higher functional classifications such as freeways are subject to underestimation
compared to lower volume roadways/functional classifications. The comparison of demographic forecasts shows a
trend of overestimation while the comparison of travel behavior characteristics indicates a lack of incorporation of
fundamental shifts and societal changes.
Description
This data was used for the project: Post-Construction Evaluation of Forecast Accuracy
Parthasarathi, Pavithra; Levinson, David (Minnesota Department of Transportation, 2009)
Referenced by
Parthasarathi, Pavithra and David Levinson (2010) Post-Construction Evaluation of Traffic Forecast Accuracy. Transport Policy 17 428-443.
http://hdl.handle.net/11299/179998
Parthasarathi, Pavithra; Levinson, David. (2009). Post-Construction Evaluation of Forecast Accuracy. Minnesota Department of Transportation. Retrieved from the University of Minnesota Digital Conservancy.
http://hdl.handle.net/11299/151312
http://hdl.handle.net/11299/179998
Parthasarathi, Pavithra; Levinson, David. (2009). Post-Construction Evaluation of Forecast Accuracy. Minnesota Department of Transportation. Retrieved from the University of Minnesota Digital Conservancy.
http://hdl.handle.net/11299/151312
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Funding information
Minnesota Department of Transportation
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Previously Published Citation
Suggested citation
Parthasarthi, Pavithra K; Levinson, David M. (2017). Model Accuracy Data for Post-Construction Evaluation of Forecast Accuracy in Minnesota. Retrieved from the Data Repository for the University of Minnesota (DRUM), https://doi.org/10.13020/D6RW2Z.
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