Risk prioritization of pork supply movements during an FMD outbreak in the US - Data and Materials

Abstract

In the event of a Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) outbreak in the U.S., local, state, and federal authorities will implement a foreign animal disease emergency response plan restricting the pork supply chain movements and likely disrupting the continuity of the swine industry business. To minimize disruptions of the food supply while providing an effective response in an outbreak, it is necessary to ensure eradication strategies and risk management efforts are focused towards the most critical movements; those that are most necessary for business continuity and most likely to contribute to disease spread. This study recruited experts from production, harvest, retail, and allied pork industries to assess 30 common pork supply movements for their industry criticality. Movements spanned five categories: equipment, live animal production, genetics, harvest, and people. Experts were recruited via email to the American Association of Swine Veterinarians (AASV) mailing list and their assessments were collected via an online survey. For each of the thirty movements, experts were asked to rate the risk of FMD spread using a four-point scale, from no or slight risk of disease spread to high risk of disease spread. Then they were asked to estimate the time at which the restriction of each movement during an outbreak would have a significant negative consequence on business (e.g., high likelihood of bankruptcy, negative impact on animal welfare). These two facets of each movement were analyzed to provide an initial guide for prioritization of risk management efforts and resources to be better prepared in the event of a FMD outbreak in the US.