The Incumbent Advantage in Twin Cities Mayoral Races: The Economy is Good and Crime May Not Drive Voters

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The Incumbent Advantage in Twin Cities Mayoral Races: The Economy is Good and Crime May Not Drive Voters

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Jacobs, Lawrence

Ostermeier, Eric J.

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2005-10-11

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Mayoral elections

Twin Cities

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Mayoral elections in the Twin Cities are generally kind to incumbents. Since the early 1970s, 6 incumbents have run for reelection in St. Paul and none have lost. In Minneapolis, the incumbent has won 4 out of the last 5 elections dating back to 1981. In terms of basic living conditions, there are no major storm clouds threatening to roil voters in the Twin Cities. Overall economic conditions are good. Violent crime is up in both cities but historically this has not been associated with the downfall of incumbents. The generally favorable economic conditions do not, however, guarantee the re-election of St. Paul Mayor Randy Kelly and Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak. Short-term factors like the partisan anger at Mayor Kelly’s endorsement of President George W. Bush may also affect the campaigns.

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Center for the Study of Politics and Governance, Humphrey School of Public Affairs, UMN

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Jacobs, Lawrence; Ostermeier, Eric J.. (2005). The Incumbent Advantage in Twin Cities Mayoral Races: The Economy is Good and Crime May Not Drive Voters. Retrieved from the University Digital Conservancy, https://hdl.handle.net/11299/195050.

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