How to Escape Thucydides Trap: A Dialogue among Sages

Abstract

This paper will review Sun Tzu and Thucydides first, but then Confucius, Lao Tzu and several other sages carefully, seeking ancient insight to help solve contemporary global security issues. Sun Tzu wrote his incomparable "Art of War" during what many civilizationalists and world historians call the "axial age." It was a “Warring States” period in China, and a time of deep thinking and conceptual evolution around the world. Sun Tzu was roughly contemporary with Thucydides of Greece, who recorded a catastrophic war between Sparta and Athens in 404 BCE, leading to the decline of Greek civilization entire as Rome rose. A dialogue between Sun Tzu and Thucydides about eternal security issues could be enhanced by consulting Confucius, Lao Tzu, Von Clausewitz, and some less famous but more recent others like Graham Allison. , Even Jesus might be relevant, although he came four centuries later and did not make his mark being an officer of armies. Jesus certainly had strong opinions about the utilities of war and peace, and some of his most profound advice can also be found in very slightly different words in the writings of Confucius and Lao Tzu.

Some world history theorists conclude that rising powers must conflict with declining powers, and in extremis that wars are thus inevitable during such times. One label for this concept is "Thucydides’s Trap." China is obviously rising, and the USA is obviously declining. So, if the trap theory is true, it suggests a grim prediction, since full-scale war between these military giants could wipe out civilization in the Northern Hemisphere. Even our species could be at risk if the most extreme, biological or nuclear WMD scenarios came true.

Therefore, sages of war and peace say ‘consult with us’ about such huge decisions on life or death for billions of people and possibly for civilization itself. They cry out, 'We have seen a lot of slaughter, so we can speak from our graves about wisdom and war if you will just consult us.’ China wants to rise softly enough to not trigger war with the US. Still (naturally) China seeks to rise, while the US (naturally) is very reluctant to cede the lead role among nations. Therefore, serious people in both Washington and Beijing ponder this dilemma every day. Then there are related issues like our cousin Kim Jong-un, pressures on Japan, South Korea and Taiwan to obtain WMD, existential challenges presented by nuclear powers in the Middle East, and millions of angry young men in many countries who would love to have some WMD … to use. We are searching for wisdom in a world gone mad, but that is better than despair or indifference.