Demographics and Conflict
2016-04
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Demographics and Conflict
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2016-04
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American Intelligence Journal
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Demographics and Conflict
(written April, 2016, by Michael Andregg for the American Intelligence Journal, of the NMIA)
Introduction to an Ancient Paradigm: population growth, environmental degradation, rising death rates and conflicts; exodus, war or genocide.
People have been killing each other since before the beginning of written history, as recorded by the broken bones of people massacred long before writing was invented. One of the quiet reasons for the large scale killings called genocides and wars is demographics, the statistics of birth rates, death rates, growth rates and migrations into or out of territories. This dimension is under-covered by those who focus on the statements or acts of key leaders. Politicians and commanders of war typically describe their reasons in political, religious or military terms, not demographics. But they were also often driven by forces they barely understood and could not control. The Mayan Empire probably fell that way. Easter Island certainly did. And the deserts of North Africa are filled with ruins from cities and empires that thrived … before the forests and farmable land turned into desert. The Kenyans have a saying: “First came forests, then man, then the deserts.” Therefore this chapter will show how simple births, deaths and migrations lead to an iron law of biology. This law observes that all living populations eventually achieve equilibrium with their environment, which means birth rates equal death rates and the population neither grows nor declines, or they die. Populations that try to grow forever suffer catastrophic death rates or become extinct. The modern case of Syria disintegrating after 2010 will be considered in some detail, because it also shows how other global factors like climate change can trigger chaos. Syria’s population growth rate in 2011 was 2.4% per year, but when half of its population was displaced by civil wars and about 6 million fled, its growth rate became sharply negative. At least 450,000 people died by violence alone. This will be followed by a short section on “Human Nature, Nurture, Free Will and War” because that topic has generated much commentary over centuries, with large implications if one accepts the simplistic conclusions that people are either born “innately” warlike, or rather “innately” social and cooperative. Truth is that people can be either one or the other depending on circumstances, and that much neglected factor “free will” or personal decisions. Finally, we close with how a few more complicated demographics like “pyramidal” vs. “columnar” age distributions, and distorted sex ratios may influence the probability of organized armed conflict on earth today and in the future.
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This essay deals in depth with one of the most profound and pernicious causes of wars and genocides, population pressure. It starts with reference to the Mayan Empire, Easter Island, and other civilization-level historic cases. But then it moves quickly to much more contemporary examples, like specifically Syria, all the while presenting a very biological frame of reference. Therefore it can seem clinical at times, dry in tone and dense with data. But understanding birth rates, death rates, resulting migrations and possible conflicts can suggest solutions to the bigger problems as well.
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American Intelligence Journal Vol. 33, No. 1, 2016, pp. 74-78.
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Andregg, Michael M.. (2016). Demographics and Conflict. Retrieved from the University Digital Conservancy, https://hdl.handle.net/11299/208813.
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