The Keystone XL Pipeline and the Fate of Human Civilization

Abstract

The Keystone XL Pipeline and the Fate of Human Civilization by Michael Andregg, University of St. Thomas in St. Paul, MN, USA. mmandregg@stthomas.edu for the ISCSC Newsletter, November 20, 2014 This issue has become so partisan, ideological and symbolic that both extreme positions can be quickly dismissed. It will not be “game over for planet Earth” if Keystone is built, as some claim very sincerely. The Earth will abide just fine even if sea levels rise 22 feet or more (~ 7 meters). And Keystone will not be the infrastructure project that saves the American economy as other ideologues maintain with equal enthusiasm. Full time, long-term jobs created would be about 50 depending on how many are required to refine the very heavy oil that arrives in Louisiana. Rather, Keystone XL marks a struggle between the plutocrats of an old energy economy in decline, and partisans of the new global renewable energy system which will certainly replace the old. Unless global warfare over consequences changes the landscape for everyone, of course. Tar sands oil is certainly very “dirty,” devastating areas where it is produced, and releasing far more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere per usable BTU obtained than alternatives. Spills are inevitable, so there will be some adverse consequences if we move that oil over some of the best farmland and most economically important aquifers on Earth. And it would have very small effect on global oil prices or gasoline prices in America. On the other hand (there are always at least two hands in this debate) Keystone XL would provide more energy security in North America if worst case scenarios of global conflict come, and global trade in energy is interrupted. Economic consequences of that would dwarf many of our current concerns. But the really big struggle in this domain is between science-based recognition that global warming is real, caused by our profligate use of fossil fuels, and has huge consequences vs. fervent denial among some that anything real is happening or that any change is necessary. In “Collapse” Jared Diamond (2005) describes past civilizations that failed because elites simply could not or would not adjust when the signs of danger were clear and urgent. They are today. Denial is a powerful psychological phenomenon, and can devastate nations at moments like this. Sea level rise is already occurring as polar ice and glaciers worldwide melt, which greatly frightens the island nations of Micronesia and countries like Bangladesh that depend on delta for half of their food and housing. But they are very poor, so some plutocrats feel they can safely ignore such complaints. They might reflect on another certain fact, that lower Manhattan is as close to the sea as so much of Bangladesh. Stock exchanges do not work well underwater. Plutocrats may think they are masters of the Universe who can order the sea to stop rising. They cannot, and if 7 meters of sea rise inundate half of Florida, most of LA, and all of the financial districts in New York and London, they will find that Switzerland is not big enough to hold all the climate refugees from plutocrat to poor. That is a much bigger issue than any one pipeline.