Predicting the effects of climate change on water yield and forest production in the northeastern United States
1995
Loading...
View/Download File
Persistent link to this item
Statistics
View StatisticsJournal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Title
Predicting the effects of climate change on water yield and forest production in the northeastern United States
Published Date
1995
Publisher
Type
Article
Abstract
Rapid and simultaneous changes in temperature, precipitation and the atmospheric concentration of CO2 are predicted to occur over the next century. Simple, well-validated models of ecosystem function are required to predict the effects of these changes. This paper describes an improved version of a forest carbon and water balance model (PnET-II) and the application of the model to predict stand- and regional-level effects of changes in temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration. PnET-II is a simple, generalized, monthly time-step model of water and carbon balances (gross and net) driven by nitrogen availability as expressed through foliar N concentration. Improvements from the original model include a complete carbon balance and improvements in the prediction of canopy phenology, as well as in the computation of canopy structure and photosynthesis. The model was parameterized and run for 4 forest/site combinations and validated against available data for water yield, gross and net carbon exchange and biomass production. The validation exercise suggests that the determination of actual water availability to stands and the occurrence or non-occurrence of soil-based water stress are critical to accurate modeling of forest net primary production (NPP) and net ecosystem production (NEP). The model was then run for the entire NewEngland/New York (USA) region using a 1 km resolution geographic information system. Predicted long-term NEP ranged from -85 to +275 g C m-2 yr-1 for the 4 forest/site combinations, and from -150 to 350 g C m-2 yr-1 for the region, with a regional average of 76 g C m-2 yr-1. A combination of increased temperature (+6*C), decreased precipitation (-15%) and increased water use efficiency (2x, due to doubling of CO2) resulted generally in increases in NPP and decreases in water yield over the region.
Description
Related to
Replaces
License
Collections
Series/Report Number
Funding information
Isbn identifier
Doi identifier
10.3354/cr005207
Previously Published Citation
Aber J. D., S. V. Ollinger, C. A. Federer, P. B. Reich, M. L. Goulden, D. W. Kicklighter, J. M. Melillo, and R. G. Lathrop. 1995. Predicting the effects of climate change on water yield and forest production in the northeastern United States. Climate Research 5:207-222.
Other identifiers
Suggested citation
Aber, John D; Ollinger, Scott V; Federer, C. Anthony; Reich, Peter B; Goulden, Michael L; Kicklighter, David W; Melillo, Jerry M; Lathrop, Richard G Jr. (1995). Predicting the effects of climate change on water yield and forest production in the northeastern United States. Retrieved from the University Digital Conservancy, 10.3354/cr005207.
Content distributed via the University Digital Conservancy may be subject to additional license and use restrictions applied by the depositor. By using these files, users agree to the Terms of Use. Materials in the UDC may contain content that is disturbing and/or harmful. For more information, please see our statement on harmful content in digital repositories.