Building a PECAS Activity Allocation Module: The experience from Caracas

Abstract

We applied the PECAS Framework, a spatial economic system for forecasting and policy analysis, to the region of Caracas, Venezuela. In this paper, we describe in 12 steps the elements developed for an Activity Allocation model in this region. A detailed inventory of built space and household characteristics was developed using a population synthesis technique. The model design and implementation reflected informal (slum) housing and social equity (with 20 residential space types), while accounting for the industrial mix of the region. Transport costs for economic interactions were calculated using a TRANUS travel demand model. We also describe the calibration of the model and the application to two policy scenarios: provision of public housing and increasing transit fares. The 12 steps can guide future researchers, specifically listing the data and processes that were applied in this context. The sensitivity tests showed how this type of model can be used to anticipate social equity effects due to policy. Based on the know-how gained, we provide valuable insights for other modelling teams, particularly for applications in developing economies.