Statistical Modeling for Intersection Decision Support

Loading...
Thumbnail Image

View/Download File

Persistent link to this item

Statistics
View Statistics

Journal Title

Journal ISSN

Volume Title

Title

Statistical Modeling for Intersection Decision Support

Published Date

2006-02-01

Publisher

Type

Abstract

This project was a component of the Intersection Decision Support (IDS) effort conducted at the University of Minnesota. In this project, statistical modeling was applied to crash data from 198 two-way, stop-controlled, intersections on Minnesota rural expressways, in order to: (1) identify intersections that were plausible candidates for future IDS deployment; (2) develop a method for estimating the crash-reduction effect of IDS deployment; (3) develop a method for predicting the crash-reduction potential of IDS deployment, and (4) test the hypothesis that older drivers were over-represented in intersection crashes along US Trunk Highway 52. All these objectives were accomplished using hierarchical model structures similar to that employed in the Interactive Highway Safety Design Model. Five rural expressway intersections were identified as having crash frequencies that were atypically high, and this group included the intersection of US Trunk Highway 52 and Goodhue County highway 9, the site chosen for the prototype IDS deployment. It was then determined that a 3-year count of crashes after deployment would probably be sufficient to detect any crash reduction effect due to the IDS, although a reliable estimate of the magnitude of this effect would require a longer test period. Assuming that the effect of an IDS deployment would be to make the crash frequencies at treated intersections similar to that experienced by typical intersections, it was estimated that deployment of the IDS at the five high-crash intersections would, over a 15-year period, result in a reduction of about 308 crashes. Finally, using an induced-exposure approach, twelve intersections were identified as showing over-representation of older drivers, five of these being on US Trunk Highway 52.

Keywords

Description

Related to

Replaces

License

Collections

Series/Report Number

Report #2 in the Series: Developing Intersection Decision Support Solutions

Funding information

Minnesota Department of Transportation

Isbn identifier

Doi identifier

Previously Published Citation

Other identifiers

Mn/DOT 2006-03

Suggested citation

Davis, Gary A.; Tilahun, Nebiyou; Mesa, Paula. (2006). Statistical Modeling for Intersection Decision Support. Retrieved from the University Digital Conservancy, https://hdl.handle.net/11299/1021.

Content distributed via the University Digital Conservancy may be subject to additional license and use restrictions applied by the depositor. By using these files, users agree to the Terms of Use. Materials in the UDC may contain content that is disturbing and/or harmful. For more information, please see our statement on harmful content in digital repositories.