This study presents an effort to track and model land use change in the Twin Cities Metropolitan Region. To that
end, we make use of a unique, high-resolution, cell-level set of land use data for the Twin Cities. The data represent
75 meter by 75 meter land use cells, observed at several points in time during the period from 1958 to 2005. These
data are used to validate three different types of land use models, which then are used to forecast land use several
decades into the future. The models applied in this study include Markov Chain models, Markov Chain- Cellular
Automata (MC-CA) models, and an empirical model based on a logistic regression specification. The models are
intended to have a simple, transparent structure that allows the user to identify sources of forecast error. Forecasts
of land use are made both for the entire study area and also for a specific corridor along State Highway 610 in the
northwestern suburbs of the Twin Cities. The study concludes with a brief discussion of the limitations of the
models, and how they might meaningfully be expanded and applied.
Iacono, Michael; Levinson, David; El-Geneidy, Ahmed; Wasfi, Rania; Zhu, Shanjiang.
Access to Destinations: Monitoring Land Use Activity Changes in the Twin Cities Metropolitan Region.
Minnesota Department of Transportation.
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