Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BBER) Reports - CURRENT

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This collection contains recent reports published by the Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BBER). These reports date from 2015 to the present.

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Spring 2022 Regional Economic Indicator Forum Overview
(University of Minnesota Duluth, 2022-04) Haynes, Monica; Chiodi Grensing , Gina; Palmquist , Ben; The College of St. Scholastica; University of Wisconsin Superior
Twice each year, students from the University of Minnesota Duluth (UMD), the University of Wisconsin- Superior (UWS), and the College of St. Scholastica (CSS) join efforts to conduct research on the economic performance of the 15-county region surrounding the Twin Ports (the REIF region). This summary provides information on the results of the three schools’ research, including a special focus on the economic effects of the pandemic, a glimpse into local consumer confidence, an analysis of regional stock performance, and survey results on business confidence and hiring practices.
Northland Reliability Project Economic Impact Analysis
(University of Minnesota Duluth, 2024-03) Haynes, Monica; Chiodi Grensing, Gina; Bakken, Mitchell; Wendinger, Avery
Minnesota Power and Great River Energy are planning to build the NRP, a 180-mile, double-circuit 345-kV transmission line extending from northern to central Minnesota that will support continued reliable electric service in the state and the Upper Midwest. UMD's Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BBER) research estimates that by the time the high-voltage transmission line is completed in 2030, the companies will have invested more than $1.5 billion over the eight-year project when the impacts of inflation are included. Of the $1.5 billion in spending, the companies estimate that about $643.5 million will have been spent within the six-county region where the transmission line is located and $993.4 million within Minnesota. Statewide, the eight-year project is predicted to add $705.3 million in employee wages and benefits (labor income), more than $1 billion in value-added spending, and nearly $2 billion in output to the state’s economy.
Assessment of a Scrimber Engineered Wood Product in Northern Minnesota
(University of Minnesota Duluth, 2024-04) Haynes , Monica; Chiodi Grensing , Gina; Nadeau , Kenny; Wendinger , Avery
Scrimber is an engineered wood product (EWP) that was introduced in the mid-1970s but has yet to reach mass production as a structural wood product. The company Scrimber CSC is working to bring Scrimber to market, noting that the product provides a more sustainable alternative to lumber, using underutilized wood fiber, increasing wood yields, and sequestering more carbon than traditional lumber products. The University of Minnesota Duluth’s (UMD) Natural Resources Research Institute (NRRI) and the Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BBER) at UMD’s Labovitz School of Business and Economics partnered with Scrimber CSC to deliver a preliminary assessment of producing a Scrimber EWP in northern Minnesota.
Measuring the Impacts of Career Training on the Economy
(University of Minnesota Duluth, 2024) Haynes, Monica; Chiodi Grensing, Gina; Ahmen, Mahad; Bakken, Mitchell; Wenginger, Avery
The Housing and Redevelopment Authority of Duluth, Minnesota (HRA) and True North Goodwill both have several career-training programs designed to bring individuals into the labor market and build career pathways for in-demand jobs. The two organizations asked the UMD Labovitz School of Business and Economics’ research bureau, the Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BBER), to estimate the economic value of career advancement in the context of moving individuals and families from public assistance to a career. Many career training programs are designed to serve low-income individuals—the same individuals most likely to receive public assistance. Research has found that adults and children who live in low-income households are more likely to face difficult circumstances like homelessness, unsafe neighborhoods, food insecurity, and inadequate health care. The authors added that these unfavorable circumstances have detrimental effects on children, including low academic performance and mental health issues. Job training can provide numerous benefits for the participants. A study by Katz and colleagues (2022) found that sector-focused training programs generated substantial earnings gains (12%-34%) for participants. But research has also found that benefits extend beyond the individuals. A 2020 study conducted by Gasper et al. examined seven types of training programs in New York City. According to the study’s authors, investing one dollar in industry-focused career training yielded “between $2.80 and $17.78 after five years compared to if that dollar had been invested in a standard job screening and matching program.” This study estimated the financial benefits of two career scenarios—Scenario 1, which represented a full-time career as a construction laborer, and Scenario 2, which represented a full-time career as a registered nurse—using data from the Career Ladder Identifier and Financial Forecaster (CLIFF) portal's Snapshot and Dashboard tools. Data was collected and analyzed to compare the two career scenarios and a baseline scenario (a part-time cashier job). The study analyzed the earnings and public assistance benefits for a single adult living in St. Louis County, Minnesota, for 35 years, during which the adult's age ranged from 30 to 64 and who had an infant (age 0). Over the course of their lifetime, the person working as a part-time cashier will earn roughly $460,000 in after-tax income, defined as earnings minus taxes paid. By comparison, the person working as a construction laborer or a registered nurse will earn roughly $1.5 million and $1.9 million, respectively. Additionally, the person working as a part-time cashier could receive roughly $733,700 in public assistance benefits over the 35-year period, whereas the person working as a construction laborer or registered nurse could receive $127,300 and $132,500, respectively. For both career scenarios (construction laborer and registered nurse), state and federal government programs could save more than $600,000 in public assistance benefits over the course of the person’s working lifetime, as compared to working as a part-time cashier. The largest public assistance savings would come from the Medicaid program ($217,000 in savings), followed by Section 8/housing assistance ($182,500), SNAP ($141,200), and childcare assistance ($36,900). Lifetime savings from the Minnesota Family Investment Program (MFIP) would equal roughly $28,700. The financial benefits estimated in this analysis were also used to model the economic impacts of Scenarios 1 and 2 on the state’s economy overall. The results of modeling found that the economic impacts to the state resulting from the career advancement of just one individual with our parameters exceed the financial benefits to the individual. For example, the person choosing a career as a registered nurse would see a cumulative increase in their net financial resources of $889,400. Yet, the state would see economic impacts of more than $1.1 million because of increasing the person’s household income.
Enbridge Pipeline Construction Economic Impact Study
(University of Minnesota Duluth, 2015) Haynes, Monica; Grensing, Gina Chiodi; Eisenbacher, Travis; Haedtke, Karen
Navigating the Benefits Bridge: Resources for Employment Service Providers and Clients in Minnesota
(University of Minnesota Duluth, 2023) Haynes, Monica; Chiodi Grensing, Gina; Bakken, Mitchell; Hopkins, Erin; Nadeau, Kenny; Perry, D'Lanie; Wendinger, Avery
Public assistance programs are designed to be a bridge to economic stability; as individuals take home more earnings and become more financially stable, their benefits will decrease. Yet in some cases, by accepting a raise or increasing the number of working hours and, thus, wages, an individual may unintentionally reduce their net income (i.e., their combined wage plus benefits). This occurrence is sometimes referred to as a “benefits cliff” and can act as a barrier to career advancement for low-income individuals. Also, given the number of programs that exist and their often-complex eligibility rules, it can be very difficult for benefits recipients to understand how changes in their income might affect their eligibility for various programs. Recently, the Economic Services and Supports Division of St. Louis County, Minnesota—the local agency that administers many of the state and federal public assistance programs—asked the Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BBER) at the University of Minnesota Duluth’s Labovitz School of Business and Economics to provide a dynamic tool that could be used by career counselors when advising their clients about the potential financial impacts of a career change, using clients’ personalized information. To accomplish this, the BBER collected feedback from counselors, conducted a literature review and online search to identify existing tools, and analyzed data from various sources to determine the accuracy and usefulness of potential tools. The project will also include training by the BBER on how to use the tool. The BBER spoke to counselors in focus groups. The counselors noted that “higher minimum wages make it easier for people to surpass income thresholds—especially with small families,” thereby making those individuals more likely to lose public assistance benefits. Counselors also noted that each program has its own requirements and paperwork and that the program requirements are difficult to understand, even for them, which made it difficult to advise clients on how to make educated career choices. When asked what type of information, tools, or resources would be helpful in advising clients about public assistance programs and career advancement, many counselors said they most wanted to have a “simple calculator to calculate benefits for different variable inputs.” Examples of features they would like included the ability to calculate benefits for a given wage or a simple cost of living calculator to assist clients with budgeting. Several counselors mentioned that a handout or infographic depicting the process of moving from public assistance to a career could make conversations easier. The research team evaluated eight potential tools based on geographic availability, accuracy of data, and usability/design. Of the tools evaluated, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s (hereafter referred to as the Atlanta Fed) CLIFF portal— developed using data from its Policy Rules Database (PRD)—was the most accurate for the largest number of St. Louis County assistance programs. Of the tools shown to the members of our working group—comprised of representatives from the county’s employment service providers— the CLIFF portal was also the most visually appealing and easiest to use. However, when comparing the data provided by the CLIFF portal with state and local policies, the working group identified inconsistencies with the Minnesota Family Investment Program (MFIP)—the state’s welfare program for low-income families with children—and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). Therefore, the BBER contacted the Atlanta Fed to inquire about the possibility of incorporating Minnesota’s rather unique MFIP program. Since first connecting in January 2023, our collaboration with the Atlanta Fed has resulted in refinements to the user interface and the inclusion of policy rules for the MFIP program.
Navigating the Benefits Bridge
(University of Minnesota Duluth, 2023) Haynes, Monica; Grensing, Gina Chiodi; Bakken, Mitchell; Wendinger, Avery
Economic Effects of the Potential I-35 Conversion in Downtown Duluth Executive Summary
(University of Minnesota Duluth, 2023) Haynes, Monica; Bennett, John; van der Hagen, Jordan; Chiodi Grensing, Gina; Hopkins, Erin; Nadeau, Kenny; Perry, D'Lanie
UMD Economic Development Agency Handout
(University of Minnesota Duluth, 2023) Hanyes, Monica; Chiodi Grensing, Gina; Ecklund, Hattie; Hook, Alexander; Thorsgard, Haakan
APEX contacted the UMD Labovitz School of Business and Economics’ research entity, the Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BBER) to identify and classify the region’s economic development entities and their corresponding services. The classification of such entities will assist the region with knowledge of economic development services provided and the service areas, along with service overlaps and deficits.
Economic Impacts of the Content Industry in Northern Minnesota
(University of Minnesota Duluth, 2023) Haynes, Monica; Chiodi Grensing, Gina; Perry, D'Lanie; Hopkins, Erin; Nadeau, Kenny
For more than 30 years, the Upper Midwest Film Office (UMFO) has been helping attract and integrate film and content production in Northeast Minnesota. Currently, UMFO is working on several issues including increasing the incentives provided to the film and content industry, developing the region’s industry-specific workforce, and building the capacity for regional soundstage construction. For purposes of wanting to educate policy makers and the broader public on the importance of the burgeoning film industry, UMFO contacted the Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BBER) at the University of Minnesota Duluth’s Labovitz School of Business and Economics to study the industry’s economic impact in St. Louis County. The BBER estimated the economic impacts of the film industry for 2022 as well as three future scenarios that might occur if the rebate limit was increased and St. Louis County saw significant growth in its film industry. In 2022, the film industry spent just over $3.0 million in the county. Our small-growth scenario assumed an increase in the rebate limit to roughly $3.25 million, which could allow for $13.0 million in spending on the part of the industry in the county. A medium-growth scenario assumed a $6.25 million rebate limit and $25.0 million in industry spending, while a large-growth scenario assumed a limit of $12.5 million and $50.0 million in local spending on the part of the film industry. In addition to the four growth scenarios, a fifth scenario—soundstage construction—assumed a one-time, temporary impact from the construction of a soundstage, something that UMFO has indicated would be necessary to support growth in the industry.
Economic Effects of the Potential I-35 Conversion in Downtown Duluth
(University of Minnesota Duluth, 2023) Haynes, Monica; Bennett, John; Chiodi Grensing, Gina; Hopkins, Erin; Nadeau, Kenny; Perry, D'Lanie
In response to growing community interest in a redesign of the I-35 corridor through downtown Duluth, Minnesota, the Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BBER) at the University of Minnesota Duluth’s Labovitz School of Business and Economics examined the potential economic effects of such a redesign. The study area for the research includes the one-mile segment of the freeway that separates the city’s central business district from the Lake Superior waterfront, as well as the area immediately surrounding the freeway. The study includes a summary of the literature on the economic effects of highway removal and rightsizing projects throughout the U.S., the results of interviews and surveys with local stakeholders, case studies summarizing five similar highway rightsizing projects, and a summary of the feasibility of a rightsizing project in Duluth. In response to growing community interest in a redesign of the I-35 corridor through downtown Duluth, Minnesota, the Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BBER) at the University of Minnesota Duluth’s Labovitz School of Business and Economics examined the potential economic effects of such a redesign. The study area for the research includes the one-mile segment of the freeway that separates the city’s central business district from the Lake Superior waterfront, as well as the area immediately surrounding the freeway. The study includes a summary of the literature on the economic effects of highway removal and rightsizing projects throughout the U.S., the results of interviews and surveys with local stakeholders, case studies summarizing five similar highway rightsizing projects, and a summary of the feasibility of a rightsizing project in Duluth. Our research team estimated that the economic impact of a one-year $50 million construction project (based on average cost per mile in case studies) could support 450 jobs, provide labor income of $29 million, contribute nearly $39 million to the study area’s GDP, and produce nearly $74 million in spending. These estimates do not represent the economic activity that might occur from development opportunities that arise after the project is completed. If Duluth were to redesign the segment of I-35 through the downtown waterfront area in a way that freed up land for alternate uses, survey respondents overwhelmingly felt that there would be private sector interest in developing that area (86% answered yes). Stakeholders identified housing (53 comments); mixed-use commercial development (39 comments); leisure and hospitality (37 comments); and other commercial developments like retail, office, and manufacturing (33 comments) as being the most likely development opportunities. This study is just one step in determining whether highway removal or rightsizing is a viable solution in Duluth. Some potential next steps for this effort include more extensive community engagement efforts, a broader look at the impacts of highway rightsizing on the case studies, and/or a more comprehensive community profile for downtown Duluth, among others. The Duluth-Superior Metropolitan Interstate Council (MIC) is currently conducting an extensive I-35 corridor planning study that includes the downtown Duluth I-35 segment. The results of that study will also play an important part in developing the long-term goals for the corridor and determining appropriate actions for transportation planning and economic development in downtown Duluth.
The Economic Impact of Local Hockey and Curling Programs on Lake County, Minnesota
(University of Minnesota Duluth, 2022) Haynes, Monica; Chiodi Grensing, Gina; Hopkins, Erin; Perry, D'Lanie
The Two Harbors Youth Hockey Association (THYHA) and Silver Bay Youth Hockey (SBYH) are the governing organizations of youth hockey in the cities of Two Harbors and Silver Bay, respectively. Children ages six through 14 are eligible to participate in the two organizations. The sport of curling—both recreational and competitive—is offered to the community by the Two Harbors Curling Club (THCC). The Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BBER) at the University of Minnesota Duluth’s Labovitz School of Business and Economics was contacted by Lovin’ Lake County—the county’s official marketing organization—to conduct a study on the economic impacts of the THYHA organization, SBYHA organization, and Two Harbors Curling Club and the economic benefits that they provide through their operations and tournaments to Lake County. For this report, Lake County hockey and curling includes all THYHA’s and SBYHA’s youth games and tournaments, the North Shore Storm high school hockey program (which uses both the Lake County and Rukavina arenas), and THCC’s weekly leagues, bonspiels (curling tournaments), and rentals.
Planning for Healthy and Resilient Climate Destinations
(University of Minnesota Duluth, 2022) Haynes, Monica
This presentation ties into the report "Interviews with Stakeholders: The Potential Social, Environmental, and Economic Impacts on Duluth, Minnesota, as a Climate Refuge" that is on the Digital Conservancy at https://conservancy.umn.edu/handle/11299/229867
Interviews with Stakeholders: The Potential Social, Environmental, and Economic Impacts on Duluth, Minnesota, as a Climate Refuge
(University of Minnesota Duluth, 2022) Haynes, Monica; Nichols Dauner, Kim; Grensing, Gina Chiodi; Palmquist, Ben; Ye, Daniel; Jones, Jacque
In March 2019, Dr. Jesse Keenan—formerly of the Graduate School of Design at Harvard University —introduced the slogan “Duluth: The Most Climate-Proof City in America” (Keenan, 2019). He suggested that city officials should market Duluth to people relocating from climate-impacted regions, citing Duluth’s (Minnesota) cool climate, inland location, and access to fresh water as factors that make Duluth more resilient to the future impacts of climate change. Despite high levels of media attention, the literature is just beginning to address climate migration not owing to sea-level rise; the migration toward climate-friendly “destination cities” like Duluth; the perceptions of those in destination cities; and policy, social, and economic factors that could pull people toward destination cities. Given the gaps in the literature, our research sought to examine the potential social, environmental, and economic impacts of climate migration on receiving communities like Duluth through interviews with stakeholders. In total, we interviewed 18 individuals including people from climate advocacy groups, city and state governments, tribal communities, higher education, businesses, and the energy sector, and those who were clergy, researchers and climate scientists, biologists, landscape architects, and funders. Some participants represented multiple areas. Participants talked about existing community concerns, the most prominent being housing and racial and socioeconomic equity. The participants cited community assets as well including social capital and aspects of infrastructure related to Duluth, which once had a larger population.
People’s Energy Cooperative Business Retention & Expansion Program
(2022-05) Grensing, Gina; Haynes, Monica; Jones, Jacque; Kofi Austin, Nana; Darger, Michael
Economic Impact of Enbridge Line 3 Replacement Project
(University of Minnesota Duluth, 2022) Haynes, Monica; Chiodi Grensing, Gina; Austin, Nana Kofi; Jones, Jacque
People's Energy Cooperative Business Retention & Expansion Program: Summary Report
(2022-05) Grensing, Gina; Haynes, Monica; Jones, Jacques; Austin, Nana Kofi; Darger, Michael
The Economic Impact of Minnesota Hospitals and Health Systems
(University of Minnesota Duluth, 2022) Haynes, Monica; Chiodi Grensing, Gina; Austin, Nana Kofi; Jones, Jacque
Hospitals and health systems play an important role in the community, not only as life saving health organizations but also as major employers and purchasers of goods that provide considerable economic impact. The Minnesota Hospital Association (MHA) contacted the Bureau of Business and Economic Research at the University of Minnesota Duluth’s Labovitz School of Business and Economics to study the economic impact of hospitals and health systems regionally and statewide. Inputs used in calculating the economic impacts of hospitals and health systems included total revenue, employment, salaries, and benefits for the 128 hospitals and health systems as well as revenue for supporting health care services, such as offices of physicians and nursing and community care facilities. In 2020, Minnesota hospitals and health systems reported total revenues of more than $21.4 billion, employment levels of 122,758 and employee compensation of $10.2 billion. The MHA regions with the highest revenues included the Twin Cities Metro Region ($10.3 billion), which includes the seven counties in the Twin Cities metro area; the Southeast Region 6 ($4.5 billion), which includes the Rochester metro area; and the Central Region 3 ($2.7 billion), which is the largest region by geography and includes 22 counties that span the entire central part of the state, including St. Cloud. In all six regions, hospitals and health systems ranked among the top ten largest industries by employment. MHA estimates that 66% of the state’s primary care clinic providers are associated with a hospital or health system, based on information obtained from the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED). MHA also used DEED data to estimate the number of primary care clinic providers associated with hospitals and health systems at the regional level with the following results: Region 1 is 71%, Region 2 is 55%, Region 3 is 58%, Region 4 is 46%, Region 5 is 91%, and Region 6 is 87%. An estimated 13% of the state’s nursing home revenues could be attributed to nursing homes associated with hospital and health systems, based on data obtained from the Minnesota Department of Health’s Health Care Cost Information System. In total, $32.3 billion in direct revenue was generated by health systems, including hospitals, clinics, nursing homes, home health, ambulance, and other associated health care entities. Economic impact analysis tracks an initial economic shock or activity (like the direct spending of hospitals and health systems and their employees) through multiple rounds of industry and consumer spending to show the multiplier or ripple effects through a local economy. The initial shock or activity is considered the direct effect, the resulting increase in industry spending is the indirect effect, and the resulting increase in consumer spending is the induced effect. The research team used the IMPLAN Group’s input-output modeling data and software (IMPLAN version 3.1) for modeling economic impacts. The data used was the most recent IMPLAN data available, which is for the year 2020. Results reflect 2022 dollars. According to the results of economic impact modeling, Minnesota hospitals and health systems—along with their affiliated clinics, nursing homes, and other associated entities—supported almost 389,000 jobs in 2020, added almost $31 billion in labor income (wages and benefits), contributed $39.3 billion in additional value added to the state’s economy, and added $67.6 billion in new spending. In total, for every one job created by hospitals and health systems in the state, another 1.09 jobs were created in related industries.
The Economic Impact of the University of Minnesota Duluth on Minnesota’s Arrowhead Region and Douglas County, Wisconsin
(University of Minnesota Duluth, 2022) Haynes, Monica; Chiodi Grensing, Gina; Palmquist, Ben; Ye, Daniel
The University of Minnesota Duluth provides a significant positive impact on the region’s economy through its annual operations, construction, and student and visitor spending. In 2019 and 2020, the total impact of all UMD expenditures and those related to its students and visitors was estimated to have supported more than 4,100 jobs and contributed to more than $581 million in local production. During the study period, the university budgeted approximately $260 million in operational expenses, which included $188 million in compensation and benefits for nearly 1,800 employees. In addition, the institution spent more than $8 million annually on construction projects. The spending from the university’s operational expenditures resulted in nearly 3,000 jobs and almost $436 million of additional output, while the construction spending led to a total of 82 jobs and over $11 million of additional output throughout the region. Student and visitor spending provides a significant impact to the local economy as well. It is estimated that, in 2019 and 2020, students attending UMD spent an estimated $88 million, while visitors coming from out of the study region to see those students spent another approximately $10 million. Combined, this spending produced more than 1,100 jobs and increased output for the region by nearly $135 million. In FY2019 and FY2020, UMD received, on average, $50.6 million in state funding while providing more than $581 million in total output. In other words, for every dollar of state support, UMD provided roughly $11.50 in total economic impact to the Arrowhead Region in 2019 and 2020.
Spring 2021 Regional Economic Indicators Forum Brochure
(University of Minnesota Duluth, 2021) Haynes, Monica; Chiodi Grensing, Gina; Thorsgard, Haakan; College of St. Scholastica; University of Wisconsin-Superior

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