JTLU Volume 8, No. 3 (2015)
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Table of Contents:
Viewpoint: Toward a new generation of land use transport interaction models, pp. 1-10
Land use–transport interaction modeling: A review of the literature and future research directions, pp. 11-38
Forecasting inaccuracies: a result of unexpected events, optimism bias, technical problems, or strategic misrepresentation?, pp. 39-55
Assessing and integrating uncertainty into land-use forecasting, pp. 57-70
Integrating activity-based travel-demand models with land-use and other long-term lifestyle decisions, pp. 71-93
Toward spatial justice: The spatial equity effects of a toll road in Cape Town, South Africa, pp. 95-114
Urban form and life-cycle energy consumption: Case studies at the city scale, pp. 115-128
Evaluating air pollution exposures across cycling infrastructure types: Implications for facility design, pp. 131-149
Bi-level cellular agent-based model: Simulation of potential impacts of high-speed rail on land cover change in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area, Portugal, pp. 151-180
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Browsing JTLU Volume 8, No. 3 (2015) by Subject "Land use"
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Item Assessing and integrating uncertainty into land-use forecasting(Journal of Transport and Land Use, 2015) Ševčíková, Hana; Simonson, Mark; Jensen, MichaelUncertainty in land use and transportation modeling has received increasing attention in the past few years. However, methods for quantifying uncertainty in such models are usually developed in an academic environment and in most cases do not reach users of official forecasts, such as planners and policymakers. In this paper, we describe the practical application of a methodology called Bayesian melding and its integration into the land-use forecast published by the Puget Sound Regional Council, a metropolitan planning organization. The method allows practitioners to assess uncertainty about forecasted quantities, such as households, population, and jobs, for each geographic unit. Users are provided with probability intervals around forecasts, which add value to model validation, scenario comparison, and external review and comment procedures. Practical issues such as how many runs to use or assessing uncertainty for aggregated regions are also discussed.Item Bi-level cellular agent-based model: Simulation of potential impacts of high-speed rail on land cover change in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area, Portugal(Journal of Transport and Land Use, 2015) Shen, Yu; Chen, Guineng; Martínez, Luís Miguel; Silva, João de Abreu eThis paper presents a bi-level cellular agent-based model (ABM) framework, which incorporates a land cover change sub-model at the local level and a socioeconomic activity growth sub-model at the regional level. In the local sub-model, a land cell is set as an agent, of which the land-cover change decisions are mainly influenced by spatial mixed logit models. The regional sub-model is driven by fixed effects panel models, generating estimates of socioeconomic variables, thanks to the accessibility improvement and local land development. The regional outputs are also distributed into the local sub-models as their inputs. By inputting the historical data of the Lisbon Metropolitan Area (LMA) in 1991, a back-casting simulation was executed for validation. It compares the simulated outputs in 2011 with the actual reference data, based on multiple resolution goodness-of-fit (MRG) methods. Three scenarios are then designed to study the potential im- pacts of high-speed rail (HSR) on land-cover change in the LMA according to different proposals of HSR station locations. The scenarios indicate that without HSR the un-built lands in the LMA are likely to be largely developed if the annual GDP growth rate holds at 1.5 percent. With HSR the simulation suggests that land development is accelerated. The opening of an additional HSR station in Setúbal besides Lisbon-Oriente does not act as an obstacle to the urbanization process in the LMA, although it reduces HSR speed and the resulting regional accessibility. However, the contribution of the added station to the land-development process is also limited. Only a few areas are likely to benefit.Item Integrating activity-based travel-demand models with land-use and other long-term lifestyle decisions(Journal of Transport and Land Use, 2015) Katoshevski-Cavari, Rachel; Glickman, Inbal; Ishaq, Robert; Shiftan, YoramThis paper extends and integrates the general activity-based model framework to present the complex relationship between long-term individual decisions, such as residential location, and daily activity and travel-behavior decisions. More specifically, it demonstrates the use of an activity-based accessibility (ABA) measure as an important variable in residential zone choice, thus serving as the link between short-term activity and travel decisions and long-term residential choice decisions. We develop a partial activity-based model accounting for the interrelationship of the main activity type, travel destination and mode choice. The log-sum at the top of the hierarchy of this model is the ABA measure capturing the overall utility of all travel alternatives. The results show that this measure is a highly significant variable in the residential-choice model, clearly indicating the great influence of activity accessibility, short-term opportunities, and travel decisions on residential area choice. All other log-sums were also significant, showing the interrelationships of all choices. Specifically, the destination-choice log-sum in the main activity-choice model demonstrates that as accessibility increases, people are more likely to participate in out-of-home activities.Item Land use–transport interaction modeling: A review of the literature and future research directions(Journal of Transport and Land Use, 2015) Acheampong, Ransford A.; Silva, Elisabete A.The aim of this review paper is to provide comprehensive and up-to-date material for both researchers and practitioners interested in land-use-transport interaction (LUTI) modeling. The paper brings together some 60 years of published research on the subject. The review discusses the dominant theoretical and conceptual propositions underpinning research in the field and the existing operational LUTI modeling frameworks as well as the modeling methodologies that have been applied over the years. On the basis of these, the paper discusses the challenges, on-going progress and future research directions around the following thematic areas: 1) the challenges imposed by disaggregation—data availability, computation time, stochastic variation and output uncertainty; 2) the challenges of and progress in integrating activity-based travel demand models into LUTI models; 3) the quest for a satisfactory measure of accessibility; and 4) progress and challenges toward integrating the environment into LUTI models.Item Viewpoint: Toward a new generation of land use transport interaction models(Journal of Transport and Land Use, 2015) van Wee, BertLand use transport interaction (LUTI) models are often developed to model the interaction between the land use and transport systems for relatively large-scale spatial developments, like new residential or office areas, new main roads, or railway lines. In this paper I argue that we need a next generation of LUTI models that model trends such as peak car; decline in population, shops, services, etc.; impact of information and communications technology (ICT) on activity patterns and travel; and cycling policies. The current generation of LUTI models cannot adequately answer the policy questions raised by these trends. However, a major problem is that the future of these trends is uncertain, and we lack empirical research into the dynamics between these trends and their wider impact on land use and transport systems. Nevertheless, LUTI models can, by utilizing what-if calculations, help explore future trends and their implications. Other challenges for LUTI models include the calculation of a wider set of accessibility indicators, the inclusion of interactions between key actors in the transport and land-use system—serious gaming may prove a useful way to explore these interactions—and the development of dynamic visualizations.