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Browsing by Author "Moeller, David A."

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    Data and Scripts for manuscript "Improving predictions of range expansion for invasive species using joint species distribution models and surrogate co-occurring species"
    (2021-01-20) Briscoe Runquist, Ryan D.; Lake, Thomas A.; Moeller, David A.; rbriscoe@umn.edu; Briscoe Runquist, Ryan
    This data can be used to replicate the results from the manuscript "Improving predictions of range expansion for invasive species using joint species distribution models and surrogate co-occurring species". Included are R scripts and occurence datasets for running Generalized Boosted Models (GBM) species distribution models for the invasive species Cardamine impatiens, Celastrus orbiculatus, and Humulus japonicus. Also included are R scripts for building spatially explicit species co-occurrence matrices used for running joint species distribution models (specifically gjam models) in for plant communities in Minnesota based on the MN DNR plant releve dataset with a focus on incorporating the invasive species Cardamine impatiens, Celastrus orbiculatus, and Humulus japonicus as well as a case study for the native species Smilacina racemosa. The exact spatial location of each releve has been changed to a gridded position in order to protect the exact location. Raw releve data must be obtained from the MN DNR.
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    Improving predictions of range expansion for invasive species using joint species distribution models and surrogate co-occurring species
    (Journal of biogeography, 2021-02) Briscoe Runquist, Ryan D.; Lake, Thomas A.; Moeller, David A.
    Aims Species distribution models (SDMs) are often used to forecast potential distributions of important invasive or rare species. However, situations where models could be the most valuable ecologically or economically, such as for predicting invasion risk, often pose the greatest challenges to SDM building. These challenges include non‐equilibrium range expansion, low or uneven prevalence, and projecting distributions into environments that are non‐analogous to the environments used for model building. Location Minnesota, USA. Taxon Cardamine impatiens (Narrowleaf Bittercress), Celastrus orbiculatus (Oriental Bittersweet), and Humulus japonicus (Japanese Hops). Methods We took a novel approach to build robust species distribution models of invasive species using occurrence‐environment correlations between invasive species and co‐occurring native community members. The correlations were obtained from a joint species distribution model (JSDM) of a densely sampled database of 10,336 MN plant communities from across the state of Minnesota, USA. Positively and negatively associated native species were incorporated into the model as surrogate presences and pseudoabsences (weighted by their environmental correlations) along with invasive species occurrences records (surrogate SDMs). Results Surrogate models performed better than traditional SDMs in predicting occurrences along the northern invasion margin (outside the training area). Both types of models had similarly high cross‐validation metrics in the area of training. Surrogate models also predicted greater range expansion beyond the current geographic range. Main conclusions These results demonstrate that modelers can take advantage of detailed community data to develop SDMs that leverage surrogate native species as phytometers of environments beyond the current area of occupancy. The additional information in surrogate models generates highly effective predictions of invasive species along expanding range margins.
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    Species Distribution Model Projections for Incipient Invasive Species of Minnesota
    (2019-05-20) Briscoe Runquist, Ryan D.; Lake, Thomas; Moeller, David A.
    Invasive species are marked by rapid range expansions or dramatic population growth that negatively affects ecosystems and communities outside of their historical range (Valéry et al. 2008). Because invasive species often cause considerable economic losses, land managers and conservation scientists need tools to forecast invasion risk so that they can direct resources for prevention strategies and targeted surveillance operations (Peterson and Robins 2003; Underwood et al. 2004; Thuiller et al. 2005; Loo et al. 2007; Bradley et al. 2010). Species distribution models (SDM) use species occurrence records and environmental data to build correlative models of habitat suitability and identify key environmental variables limiting range expansion (Elith and Leathwick 2009a, b; Elith et al. 2010; Elith et al. 2011). For invasive species, SDMs can be a useful tool for identifying potential habitat requirements and environmental limitations of future range expansion (Bradley et al. 2009; Bradley et al. 2010; Elith et al. 2010; Allen and Bradley 2016). In this document, we provide detailed distribution models for eight invasive species incipient to the Upper Midwest. These species are invasive to portions of North America and were identified by the Minnesota Invasive Terrestrial Plants and Pests (MITPPC) Center as not present or incipient invasions to Minnesota with potential to have economic and natural resources impacts if they were to successfully invade Minnesota. We assess of habitat suitability for these species across the state under current climate conditions and under a range of future climate scenarios. The incipient invasive species included in this document are: Palmer Amaranth (Amaranthus palmeri); Black Swallowwort (Vincetoxicum nigrum); Common Teasel (Dipsacus fullonum); Brown Knapweed (Centaurea jacea); Dalmatian Toadflax (Linaria dalmatica); Oriental Bittersweet (Celastrus orbiculatus); Japanese Hops (Humulus japonicus); Narrowleaf Bittercress (Cardamine impatiens). Additionally, this document contains distributional information on two invasive species that have invaded Minnesota and spread rapidly, causing measurable ecological and economic damage. Both species have established populations in portions of the state that are subject to control and eradication efforts. The models contained in this document provide further information on the potential for spread and establishment throughout the state. The established and top priority species are: Wild Parsnip (Pastinaca sativa); Common Tansy (Tanacetum vulgare).