Species Distribution Model Projections for Incipient Invasive Species of Minnesota

Abstract

Invasive species are marked by rapid range expansions or dramatic population growth that negatively affects ecosystems and communities outside of their historical range (Valéry et al. 2008). Because invasive species often cause considerable economic losses, land managers and conservation scientists need tools to forecast invasion risk so that they can direct resources for prevention strategies and targeted surveillance operations (Peterson and Robins 2003; Underwood et al. 2004; Thuiller et al. 2005; Loo et al. 2007; Bradley et al. 2010). Species distribution models (SDM) use species occurrence records and environmental data to build correlative models of habitat suitability and identify key environmental variables limiting range expansion (Elith and Leathwick 2009a, b; Elith et al. 2010; Elith et al. 2011). For invasive species, SDMs can be a useful tool for identifying potential habitat requirements and environmental limitations of future range expansion (Bradley et al. 2009; Bradley et al. 2010; Elith et al. 2010; Allen and Bradley 2016).

In this document, we provide detailed distribution models for eight invasive species incipient to the Upper Midwest. These species are invasive to portions of North America and were identified by the Minnesota Invasive Terrestrial Plants and Pests (MITPPC) Center as not present or incipient invasions to Minnesota with potential to have economic and natural resources impacts if they were to successfully invade Minnesota. We assess of habitat suitability for these species across the state under current climate conditions and under a range of future climate scenarios. The incipient invasive species included in this document are: Palmer Amaranth (Amaranthus palmeri); Black Swallowwort (Vincetoxicum nigrum); Common Teasel (Dipsacus fullonum); Brown Knapweed (Centaurea jacea); Dalmatian Toadflax (Linaria dalmatica); Oriental Bittersweet (Celastrus orbiculatus); Japanese Hops (Humulus japonicus); Narrowleaf Bittercress (Cardamine impatiens).

Additionally, this document contains distributional information on two invasive species that have invaded Minnesota and spread rapidly, causing measurable ecological and economic damage. Both species have established populations in portions of the state that are subject to control and eradication efforts. The models contained in this document provide further information on the potential for spread and establishment throughout the state. The established and top priority species are: Wild Parsnip (Pastinaca sativa); Common Tansy (Tanacetum vulgare).