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Browsing by Author "Melillo, Jerry M"

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    Predicting the effects of climate change on water yield and forest production in the northeastern United States
    (1995) Aber, John D; Ollinger, Scott V; Federer, C. Anthony; Reich, Peter B; Goulden, Michael L; Kicklighter, David W; Melillo, Jerry M; Lathrop, Richard G Jr
    Rapid and simultaneous changes in temperature, precipitation and the atmospheric concentration of CO2 are predicted to occur over the next century. Simple, well-validated models of ecosystem function are required to predict the effects of these changes. This paper describes an improved version of a forest carbon and water balance model (PnET-II) and the application of the model to predict stand- and regional-level effects of changes in temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration. PnET-II is a simple, generalized, monthly time-step model of water and carbon balances (gross and net) driven by nitrogen availability as expressed through foliar N concentration. Improvements from the original model include a complete carbon balance and improvements in the prediction of canopy phenology, as well as in the computation of canopy structure and photosynthesis. The model was parameterized and run for 4 forest/site combinations and validated against available data for water yield, gross and net carbon exchange and biomass production. The validation exercise suggests that the determination of actual water availability to stands and the occurrence or non-occurrence of soil-based water stress are critical to accurate modeling of forest net primary production (NPP) and net ecosystem production (NEP). The model was then run for the entire NewEngland/New York (USA) region using a 1 km resolution geographic information system. Predicted long-term NEP ranged from -85 to +275 g C m-2 yr-1 for the 4 forest/site combinations, and from -150 to 350 g C m-2 yr-1 for the region, with a regional average of 76 g C m-2 yr-1. A combination of increased temperature (+6*C), decreased precipitation (-15%) and increased water use efficiency (2x, due to doubling of CO2) resulted generally in increases in NPP and decreases in water yield over the region.
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    Temperature response of soil respiration largely unaltered with experimental warming
    (2016) Carey, Joanna C; Tang, Jianwu; Templer, Pamela H; Kroeger, Kevin D; Crowther, Thomas W; Burton, Andrew J; Dukes, Jeffrey S; Emmett, Bridget; Frey, Serita D; Heskel, Mary A; Jiang, Lifen; Machmuller, Megan B; Mohan, Jacqueline; Panetta, Anne Marie; Reich, Peter B; Reinsch, Sabine; Wang, Xin; Allison, Steven D; Bamminger, Chris; Bridgham, Scott; Collins, Scott L; de Dato, Giovanbattista; Eddy, William C; Enquist, Brian J; Estiarte, Marc; Harte, John; Henderson, Amanda; Johnson, Bart R; Larsen, Klaus Steenberg; Luo, Yiqi; Marhan, Sven; Melillo, Jerry M; Peñuelas, Josep; Pfeifer-Meister, Laurel; Poll, Christian; Rastetter, Edward; Reinmann, Andrew B; Reynolds, Lorien L; Schmidt, Inger K; Shaver, Gaius R; Strong, Aaron L; Suseela, Vidya; Tietema, Albert
    The respiratory release of carbon dioxide (CO2) from soil is a major yet poorly understood flux in the global carbon cycle. Climatic warming is hypothesized to increase rates of soil respiration, potentially fueling further increases in global temperatures. However, despite considerable scientific attention in recent decades, the overall response of soil respiration to anticipated climatic warming remains unclear. We synthesize the largest global dataset to date of soil respiration, moisture, and temperature measurements, totaling >3,800 observations representing 27 temperature manipulation studies, spanning nine biomes and over 2 decades of warming. Our analysis reveals no significant differences in the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration between control and warmed plots in all biomes, with the exception of deserts and boreal forests. Thus, our data provide limited evidence of acclimation of soil respiration to experimental warming in several major biome types, contrary to the results from multiple single-site studies. Moreover, across all nondesert biomes, respiration rates with and without experimental warming follow a Gaussian response, increasing with soil temperature up to a threshold of ∼25 °C, above which respiration rates decrease with further increases in temperature. This consistent decrease in temperature sensitivity at higher temperatures demonstrates that rising global temperatures may result in regionally variable responses in soil respiration, with colder climates being considerably more responsive to increased ambient temperatures compared with warmer regions. Our analysis adds a unique cross-biome perspective on the temperature response of soil respiration, information critical to improving our mechanistic understanding of how soil carbon dynamics change with climatic warming.