Browsing by Author "Gillespie, Thomas"

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    Data, Model Documentation, and Output Supporting "Optimizing syndromic health surveillance in free ranging great apes: the case of Gombe National Park"
    (2018-05-24) Wolf, Tiffany, M; Wang, Wenchun, A; Lonsdorf, Elizabeth V; Gillespie, Thomas; Pusey, Anne; Gilby, Ian; Travis, Dominic A; Singer, Randall; wolfx305@umn.edu; Wolf, Tiffany M
    Syndromic surveillance is an incipient approach to early wildlife disease detection. Consequently, systematic assessments are needed for methodology validation in wildlife populations. We evaluated the sensitivity of a syndromic surveillance protocol for respiratory disease detection among chimpanzees in Gombe National Park, Tanzania. Empirical health, behavioral and demographic data were integrated with an agent-based, network model to simulate disease transmission and surveillance. Surveillance sensitivity was estimated as 66% (95% Confidence Interval: 63.1, 68.8%) and 59.5% (95% Confidence Interval: 56.5%, 62.4%) for two monitoring methods (weekly count and prevalence thresholds, respectively), but differences among calendar quarters in outbreak size and surveillance sensitivity suggest seasonal effects. We determined that a threshold weekly detection of ≥2 chimpanzees with clinical respiratory disease leading to outbreak response protocols (enhanced observation and biological sampling) is an optimal algorithm for outbreak detection in this population. Synthesis and applications: This is the first quantitative assessment of syndromic surveillance in wildlife, providing a model approach addressing disease emergence. Coupling syndromic surveillance with targeted diagnostic sampling in the midst of suspected outbreaks will provide a powerful system for detecting disease transmission and understanding population impacts.