Agenda-setting and mathematically predictable mass behavior.

Abstract

Agenda-setting, or the influence of media on public perception, has been the focus of numerous studies over the past three decades (Bryant & Zillman, 2002; Lowery & DeFleur, 1995). Although these studies vary in methodological and ideological approach, there is strong support for the agenda-setting influence of news media, especially over extended periods of time (Bryant & Zillman, 2002; Funkhouser, 1973; Zhu, 1992). However, correlation strengths between media and public agendas in studies range from .05 to .967 (in the most extreme cases, with the majority falling closer to an average influence range of .35-.8) (Wanta & Ghanem, 2007), and some have argued that these correlation differences are evidence of a flaw in agenda-setting theory (McLeod, 1974). Correlation variations do not, however, necessarily contradict agenda-setting theory but may instead be the natural variation resulting from a dynamic process between the media and the public, where information is acquired, absorbed and organized by individuals, and then used to seek out and organize further information. Originally a simple prediction of correlation between the news media and public issue salience, agenda-setting has evolved to include a myriad of variables dealing with the ‘discrepancies’ of human behavior (McCombs, 2005; Wanta & Ghanem, 2007). Human behavior is not perhaps as simple as predicting the movement of particles, largely due to a phenomenon commonly known as free will (Ball, 2004; Dalton, Beck, Heckfedldt & Koetzle, 1998). It is, however, predictable, because even pure randomness – either in particles or in human behavior - gives way to determinism if the number of random events is large, as individual will is submerged by the constraints of society (Ball, 2004). The means to predict mass behavior is already available in existing agenda-setting studies. Theoretically, by looking at existing agenda-setting studies and understanding the conditions under which different correlation strengths occur, it should be possible to extract patterns of behavior, extrapolate the influence of variables on the relationship between the media and the public, and effectively predict varying correlation strengths of different studies according to their situational conditions.