Predicting Adult Criminal Behaviour from Juvenile Delinquency: Ex-Ante vs Ex-Post Projections of the Benefits of Early Intervention

Abstract

A significant source of the societal benefits from public investments in high-quality preschool education is the reduction in costs of juvenile delinquency and adult criminal behaviour. Almost two thirds of the total estimated benefit attributed to the infamous Perry Preschool Program consists of criminal justice system savings and averted criminal victimization costs related to the intervention’s effect on criminal behaviour (Barnett, 1996)1. Similarly, approximately 50% of the total estimated benefit attributed to the Chicago Child – Parent Center (CPC) preschool program is comprised of savings related to the intervention’s effect on juvenile delinquency and adult criminal behaviour (Reynolds, Temple, Robertson, & Mann, 2002)2. To a lesser extent, criminal justice system savings and averted victimization costs also constitute a significant proportion of the estimated benefits of prenatal intervention and early home visitation (Glazner, Bondy, Luckey, & Olds, 2004; Karoly, Greenwood, Everingham, Hoube, & Kilburn, 1998).