Using quantitative and qualitative epidemiological tools for holistic, effective African Swine Fever prevention, early detection, and control

Abstract

African Swine Fever (ASF) is a viral, hemorrhagic disease of swine that is notifiable to the World Organization for Animal Health. ASF can cause nearly 100% mortality in affected swine herds, and no treatment or vaccine is available. Animal health officials rely on biosecurity, surveillance, and other control measures to manage ASF outbreaks. The United States is free of ASF, but widespread outbreaks in Europe, Asia, and the Dominican Republic have increased concern in the US swine industry. Studies have estimated that an ASF introduction could cost the US over $50 billion USD in losses and control efforts. The objective of this work was to use complementary quantitative and qualitative epidemiological and analytical tools to support the development of holistic ASF prevention and control strategies for the US and globally. Chapter 1 describes the background and important characteristics of ASF and reviews the use of some epidemiological techniques for ASF control. Chapter 2 describes how Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats analysis was used to characterize stakeholders’ perceptions of ASF control strategies in the Dominican Republic. Chapter 3 demonstrates how quantitative risk analysis was used to characterize the risk of ASF introduction into the US in imported non-animal feed ingredients. In Chapter 4, qualitative participatory methods were used to characterize stakeholder values and needs regarding enhanced passive surveillance for early detection of ASF in the US. Chapter 5 demonstrates the use of Bayesian latent class analysis to estimate the sensitivity and specificity of novel ASF ELISA and qPCR diagnostic tests using field data from Vietnam. The work described in these chapters has demonstrated how both qualitative and quantitative tools can provide important data and socioeconomic context for the development of ASF prevention and control strategies. Future efforts for the US should encompass this holistic strategy to ASF preparedness, from understanding stakeholder values and providing training and support to using analytical and data-driven techniques to enhance biosecurity, surveillance, and outbreak preparedness. Ultimately, global cooperation, collaboration, and transparency will support the international fight against ASF.