2010 Outlook for Forest Biomass Availability in Minnesota: Physical, Environmental, Economic, and Social Availability

Abstract

The growing interest and investment in forest biomass for energy production in Minnesota has created the need for accurate estimates of supply. This report estimates the total physical supply of residual forest biomass in Minnesota using a spreadsheet based Forest Age Class Change Simulator (FACCS) to model changes in forest growth and productivity at different harvest target levels, biomass retention levels, forest type, ownership, and biomass attribute (e.g., bolewood, limbs and tops). The findings are presented statewide and by region for different harvest levels and forest management scenarios. Total economic and social availability are further modeled for private woodland owners to determine the probability of their willingness to sell biomass in conjunction with ongoing forest management activities. The results provide a transparent analysis of biomass availability that illuminates policy dialogue and planning regarding the incremental increases in demand for forest biomass and the level of production that is ecologically sustainable within an area.