Churn Prediction in MMORPGs: A Social Influence Based Approach

Thumbnail Image

View/Download File

Persistent link to this item

View Statistics

Journal Title

Journal ISSN

Volume Title


Churn Prediction in MMORPGs: A Social Influence Based Approach

Published Date






Massively Multiplayer Online Role Playing Games (MMORPGs) are computer based games in which players interact with one another in the virtual world. Worldwide revenues for MMORPGs have seen amazing growth in last few years and it is more than a 2 billion dollars industry as per current estimates. Huge amount of revenue potential has attracted several gaming companies to launch online role playing games. One of the major problems these companies suffer apart from ?erce competition is erosion of their customer base. Churn is a big problem for the gaming companies as churners impact negatively in the "word-of-mouth" reports for potential and existing customers leading to further erosion of user base. We study the problem of player churn in the popular MMORPG EverQuest II. The problem of churn prediction has been studied extensively in the past in various domains and social network analysis has recently been applied to the problem to understand the effects of the strength of social ties and the structure and dynamics of a social network in churn. In this paper, we propose a churn prediction model based on examining social in?uence among players and their personal engagement in the game. We hypothesize that social in?uence is a vector quantity, with components negative in?uence and positive in?uence. We propose a modified diffusion model to propagate the in?uence vector in the player's network which represents the social in?uence on the player from his network. We measure a player's personal engagement based on his activity patterns and use it in the modified diffusion model and churn prediction. Our method for churn prediction which combines social in?uence and player engagement factors has shown to improve prediction accuracy significantly for our dataset as compared to prediction using the conventional diffusion model or the player engagement factor, thus validating our hypothesis that combination of both these factors could lead to a more accurate churn prediction.



Related to



Series/Report Number

Funding information

Isbn identifier

Doi identifier

Previously Published Citation

Suggested citation

Kawale, Jaya; Pal, Aditya; Srivastava, Jaideep. (2009). Churn Prediction in MMORPGs: A Social Influence Based Approach. Retrieved from the University Digital Conservancy,

Content distributed via the University Digital Conservancy may be subject to additional license and use restrictions applied by the depositor. By using these files, users agree to the Terms of Use. Materials in the UDC may contain content that is disturbing and/or harmful. For more information, please see our statement on harmful content in digital repositories.