What sustains behavioral changes? A dynamical systems approach to improving theories of change in physical exercise

Abstract

Health behaviors, such as physical exercise, are associated with chronic diseases that top the list of all-cause mortality. Yet, the most healthful lifestyle changes people can (and often want to) make, also tend to be the most challenging to sustain. This dissertation explores how modeling behavior as a dynamical system could improve understanding of psychological processes that sustain behavioral changes. I focus on two classes of processes—motivational and habitual—that may be most pertinent to sustaining changes in physical exercise. A model based on prior theorizing is constructed and simulated (Study 1), and observational data are analyzed (Study 2). Intensive longitudinal data are collected from healthy US-based Fitbit users who recently initiated an increase in exercise. Participants are prospectively observed for two months during which measures of motivation and habit are assessed three days per week, and exercise-as-usual is passively tracked via Fitbit. I find that within-person increases in the automaticity with which exercise is performed in a given week is associated with increases in time spent exercising. Furthermore, differences in the trajectory of automaticity and satisfaction with exercise over time may differentiate those who successfully maintain increases in exercise and those who do not. Results are placed in the context of contemporary theories of behavior change maintenance and suggestions for improvement are forwarded.