Food Systems and Climate Change: A Comparison of Global Emission Estimates, A Systems Framework for Mitigation Efforts, and Intersections of Mitigation Efforts with Sustainable Development Goals

Abstract

Global food systems are estimated to contribute approximately one-third of anthropogenicgreenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and alone, are large enough to make the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement unattainable. The need for the rapid reduction of GHG emissions in our food systems is well established, with calls for food systems transformation focusing on the intersection of climate, food security, public health, sustainability, and social reform as people do not have equal access to nutrition, land, or economic benefit. The multifaceted nature of our food systems crisis requires thoughtful and expansive solutions. This dissertation strives to understand the contribution of the global food system to GHG emissions today and in the future, explore recommendations to reduce food system GHG emissions using a systems thinking framework, and how these interventions may affect broader sustainability goals. In my three chapters, I: (1) synthesize and explore estimates of global food system GHG emissions in the past and future; (2) explore interventions and expert recommendations to mitigate food system emissions through a systems thinking lens, and use systems change frameworks to propose more transformational recommendations; and (3) explore how interventions to mitigate food system emissions might affect the achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). I find that: (1) existing estimates for global food system GHG emissions are often too aggregated to contribute to understanding what drives climate damages, while there are no global food system GHG emission projections for the future that include post-production emissions; (2) there is a mismatch between expert calls for food systems transformation to mitigate GHG emissions and expert recommendations, but we can expand our expert recommendations to mitigate food systems utilizing systems change frameworks to create better, more transformational recommendations; and (3) that there are likely to be environmental- and economic-benefits of interventions to mitigate food system emissions, but advancement on justice-centered SDGs is likely only if policies center on reducing inequalities, and marginalized and vulnerable populations are included and empowered at the forefront of mitigation policy planning and implementation. Food system mitigation interventions that are inclusive, holistic, and interdisciplinary that are designed to consider all the SDGs initially are likely to bring us closer to the transformational food system changes necessary to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, achieve sustainable diets, and reduce inequalities in our food systems. Overall, my work suggests that climate mitigation research would benefit from: current food system emissions estimates that are sufficiently disaggregated to illuminate what is ultimately driving climate damages in our global food system; projections of comprehensive GHG emissions that include the entire life cycle of our global food system; a new focus in our recommendations and efforts on interventions that have higher potential to achieve desired food system transformations; and include aspects of sustainability beyond climate change mitigation to ensure our future efforts to reduce GHG emissions do not exacerbate the existing inequalities in our current food system.