Assessing the Prospects for Minnesota-Produced Sustainable Aviation Fuel

Abstract

The aviation sector contributes about 4% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (Ritchie, 2024). Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) remains the only viable option for meaningful decarbonization in the near term. Minnesota is uniquely positioned to produce SAF in-state because of its existing partnership with Delta Airlines through the Minnesota SAF Hub, its thriving agricultural industry, and its proven interest in investing in decarbonization. There are four relevant pathways to produce SAF in Minnesota: Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA), Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ), Gasification with Fischer-Tropsch Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosene (FT), and Power to Liquid (PtL). The agricultural pathways, HEFA, AtJ, and FT, are the most technologically mature. The carbon intensity score for each pathway varies heavily by the feedstock. Soy, winter oilseeds, fats, oils, and greases (FOG), corn, forestry residue, and agricultural residues are the primary feedstocks considered for Minnesota-made SAF. Additionally, each pathway will require hydrogen, water, and land use. Energy and infrastructure considerations remain a challenge to production and will require greater investment to create the fundamental resources necessary for producing SAF in the state. Funding also remains a barrier, as SAF currently costs 2 to 10 times more than traditional jet fuel and is not expected to reach price parity at scale. Policy change, especially related to permitting processes and tax incentives, will be necessary to support SAF production in the short and long term. This report identifies seven areas for recommendation: research and development, pathway prioritization, foundational investment, funding barriers assessments, water concerns, and sustainable economy promotion.