Foresight Programs for Educational Policy: Program Participants' Perceptions and Experiences with Outcomes.

Abstract

Increasingly rapid technological and social changes pose significant challenges for educators and educational policymakers in Iceland. To address these challenges, Icelandic policymakers implemented two foresight programs intended to provide anticipatory intelligence and promote long-term perspectives for educational policymaking. Foresight programs are intended to produce intelligence and capacities that encourage stakeholder organizations to adopt long-term perspectives regarding policy change and development. Foresight outcomes have been categorized as: immediate outcomes, resulting from initial program activities; intermediate outcomes, resulting from the transfer of immediate outcomes to stakeholder organizations; and ultimate outcomes, that are expected to occur over the long-term. This multi-methods case study examined two foresight programs implemented in Iceland, the Iceland 2020 program and the Ministry of Education, Science and Culture's foresight program on technology and education. The programs were implemented to explore, and address, future challenges relating to education, and in the case of the Iceland 2020 program, other related issues. The study used Engeström's (1999) Cultural-Historical Activity Theory (CHAT) to explore how immediate foresight outcomes were transferred from program contexts to program participants' organizational contexts and their affects on organizations. The study included a survey and semi-structured interviews. Data were analyzed using the constant comparative method to develop themes as they emerged. The data were further analyzed using the CHAT framework to explore the processes that were involved in the transfer of immediate foresight outcomes between the program and organizational contexts. The findings suggest that foresight program coordinators and planners need to ensure that program participants have a sufficient understanding of foresight and futures methods to recognize immediate foresight outcomes and how to engage others within their organizations with them. The outcomes of the study provide an empirical foundation for extending current models of foresight processes and outcomes as they relate to educational policy. Furthermore, they help to better inform foresight program coordinators and planners to ensure that program objectives are met.