Distribution, range connectivity, and trends of bear populations in Southeast Asia

Abstract

Sun bears and Asiatic black bears co-occur in Southeast Asia with wide areas of overlapping range. Both species are in decline, and are vulnerable to extinction due mainly to habitat loss and illegal hunting. Efforts to conserve bears in Southeast Asia are hampered by a lack of basic knowledge of distribution, population trends and habitat configuration. To advance the scientific understanding of sun bears and Asiatic back bears in this region I investigated fine and broad scale patterns of distribution. In Lao PDR, I gathered data on bear occurrence using bear sign transects walked in multiple forest blocks throughout the country. To model the country-wide relative abundance of bears and habitat quality, I related bear sign to environmental factors associated with bear occurrence. Within global sun bear range, I gathered camera trap records of sun bear detections from seven sun bear range countries. To generate quantitative measures of sun bear population trends, I related sun bear detection rates to tree cover and estimated related changes in country and global-level sun bear populations based on tree cover loss. To evaluate the global extent of sun bear range connectivity, I used the modelled relationship between sun bears and tree cover to create a habitat suitability index, and I identified areas of fractured range that have created unnatural subpopulations that are at risk from isolation. In Lao PDR, bears selected for areas of high elevation, rugged terrain, and areas of high tree density far from roads. My model-based estimates of sun bear global population trends predicted that over a 30-year period, sun bear populations in mainland southeast Asia have potentially declined by close to 20%, and insular sun bear populations have declined by ~50%. I identified seven potential sun bear subpopulations; two that are fully isolated with no potential for inter-subpopulation movement, and in the other five, inter and intra-subpopulation habitat fragmentation occurs in a continuum of severity. My findings advance the understanding of patterns in bear distribution and trends in southeast Asia, identify research priorities, and lay a framework for future monitoring efforts at country and region-level scales. I conclude with recommendations on how to better manage camera trap data for secondary research and sharing.