Validating the Agent-Based Model for Cooling Options Utilization During Extreme Heat Events in Hennepin County

Abstract

This project was completed as part of a partnership between Hennepin County and the University of Minnesota’s Resilient Communities Project (https://rcp.umn.edu/). The goal of this project was to assess whether an agent-based model (ABM) can reliably capture household responses to extreme heat in Hennepin County by comparing simulated movement toward cooling options with observed visitation data. Hennepin County project lead Jessica Spanswick and Dr. Bryan Runck collaborated with RCP Scholar Lifeng Ren to integrate real visitation data from multiple sources, including library entry counts, cellphone mobility records, and emergency department encounters, and compare observed patterns on heat days with simulated predictions. Results indicate that while the ABM correctly identifies the relative importance of key covariates—air conditioning availability, elderly population share, income, and building year—it tends to overstate the magnitude of heat effects compared to observed visitation. Importantly, empirical analysis shows that regional hub libraries attract significant surges in visitation on hot days, while smaller neighborhood branches may experience little change or even declines. A final student report, poster, and presentation slides from the project are available.