The value capture potential of the Lisbon subway

Abstract

This paper tries to build on traditional value capture measures, to estimate the potential of some of these mechanisms for the Lisbon subway by examining their ability to mitigate the system’s operation and development costs. The study focus is on the municipality of Lisbon where this system mainly operates. This research uses spatial hedonic pricing models of the real estate of the region, calibrated on previous stages of the study, to assess the extent to which transportation infrastructure is currently capitalized into the real estate market. The paper uses a Monte Carlo simulation procedure to estimate a synthetic population of residential and non-residential properties that matches the census blocks statistics, measuring the subway valuation for each synthetic property and aggregating the results for the whole municipality. This potential value capture estimate is then used to estimate an annual tax that could be charged under different value capture measure configurations (i.e., land value tax, special assessment). The results suggest that there is significant potential for the use of this instrument to finance the subway infrastructure.