Analysis of future climate-biome envelopes and bur oak succession potential of the Western Great Lake States

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Analysis of future climate-biome envelopes and bur oak succession potential of the Western Great Lake States

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2019-01

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Climate change threatens to extirpate the boreal forest biome from the Western Great Lakes Region this century. On the other hand, oak savanna, once abundant along the prairie-forest border in the region is nearly eliminated at present, and the regional status of bur oak, a component in each biome of the region, is understudied. This thesis examines the biome shifts as predicated by climate with a climate-biome envelope model, and addresses the current status and future potential of bur oak using US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis data. Results reaffirm those indicating loss of boreal forest from the region, and show that the changing climate may support oak savanna the northern part of the region. One forest community shows a potentially increasing proportion of bur oak, but an overall trend away from bur oak regeneration may obstruct its ability to assert its potentially heightened importance as the climate warms.

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University of Minnesota M.S. thesis.January 2019. Major: Natural Resources Science and Management. Advisor: Lee Frelich. 1 computer file (PDF); iv, 80 pages.

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Toot, Ryan. (2019). Analysis of future climate-biome envelopes and bur oak succession potential of the Western Great Lake States. Retrieved from the University Digital Conservancy, https://hdl.handle.net/11299/202109.

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