The Impact of Societal Instability on Demographic Behavior(USSR/Russia: A Case Study)

Abstract

The dissertation investigates the impact of sociopolitical instability on fertility. I develop a model linking macro-level sociopolitical instabilities of various types and intensities with their perceptions as uncertainties on the micro-level and further impact on fertility decision-making and outcomes. This model is based on a modified version of the uncertainty reduction theory. I stipulate that higher fertility rates may reflect people’s effort to reduce uncertainty in the periods of higher instability. I test and partially confirm this model by application of an age-period-cohort analysis to fertility data from the Soviet and post-Soviet Russia from 1959 through 1998. The findings lead to certain suggestions in the way of refinement of the uncertainty reduction theory.