An Economic Analysis of Cost Trends in Listeria Monocytogenes Recalls from Meat, 2010 - 2024

Abstract

Listeria monocytogenes is a strand of bacteria that causes foodborne illness. Recalls tend to be costly through both direct and indirect measures. Previous research has uncovered that loss of human life, illness, and amount of product highly impact the cost of food recalls. Using a model adapted from previous research on the economic cost of food recalls, this paper seeks to find the driving explanatory variables of the total cost of Listeria monocytogenes recalls of meat products. The data sampled was collected from the USDA FSIS’s publications on Listeria monocytogenes recalls from 2010 to 2024. A statistical multiple linear regression was performed to determine the presences of correlation between possible explanatory variables and the response variable at a significance level of 0.05. Of the selected variables, days of delayed communication and pounds of product recalled produced p-values less than the significance level, establishing a relationship between these explanatory variables and the response of cost. This implies that these variables constitute the driving variable most capable of predicting the overall cost of a Listeria monocytogenes recall from meat products.