Flattening the Eviction Curve: A Quasi-Experimental Evaluation of the Brooklyn Center Tenant Protection Ordinance

Abstract

This paper uses two quasi-experimental methods—synthetic control (SC) and difference-in-differences (DiD)—to evaluate the effects of the 2022 Brooklyn Center Tenant Protection Ordinance. The ordinance was adopted at a time when eviction filings were on the rise across the state. Descriptive statistics provide an indication that after the ordinance was adopted, Brooklyn Center’s eviction rate did not increase by as much as the eviction rate in other parts of suburban Hennepin County. For SC models, I compared Brooklyn Center to most other Hennepin County cities. I found statistically significant evidence that the ordinance reduced eviction rates in the period 37-48 weeks after policy adoption. This result survived several placebo tests (though it was sensitive to whether Brooklyn Park was included in the donor pool). Results for filing rates did not survive all placebo tests. For DiD, I drew from a sample of most block groups in suburban Hennepin County. Conditioning on pre-treatment covariates via doubly robust DiD, I found the policy brought reduced eviction rates and filing rates in some of the first eight months after policy adoption. DiD models survived a wide variety of robustness checks. SC and DiD provided consistent evidence of reduced eviction rates in some periods of time. The two methods produced mixed evidence on filing rates, and did not produce strong evidence of policy effects for other outcomes. This paper concludes that when evictions spiked across Minnesota following the expiration of COVID-19 eviction moratorium policies, the City of Brooklyn Center flattened the eviction curve.