Plastics & Climate: Analysis of Regulatory Capture through Voluntary Plastic Waste Management Programs

Abstract

International regulations to limit the impacts of climate change are increasingly targeting reduced fossil fuel consumption. This path presents a grave threat to oil and gas firms, however, as they face a potential collapse of their markets. To maintain long-term viability, profitability, and influence, fossil fuel manufacturers have signaled a business model pivot. Diverting their product pipelines into the petrochemical market, producers can tap into the growing demand for plastics. A range of socioeconomic factors contribute to increasing plastic consumption. While plastic demand has slowed in the United States and other developed countries, the opposite is true in developing and transition economies, driven by increasing incomes and changes in consumption patterns. This booming sector meanwhile contributes significantly to global greenhouse gas emissions, and continued plastic production and consumption threatens to derail climate change mitigation policies. To match shifting demand patterns, powerful international petrochemical companies are looking to other countries to grow their product markets.2 If current trends continue, plastic will make up 20% of global oil consumption by 2050. At the same time, there is growing public awareness of plastic pollution and the inability of many countries to handle the resulting waste. As public discourse around plastic waste evolves, political actors have shown increasing willingness to address plastic pollution, including banning certain materials, increasing recycling, and cleaning up ocean plastic.4 For oil and petrochemical companies attempting to navigate the climate problem by pivoting to plastic, there is a clear incentive to resist new restrictions on plastic manufacturing. Limiting plastic consumption decreases the need for new materials, thus removing their intended profit centers. Thus, activities to develop international plastic markets are crucial to firms’ long-term profitability as demand for carbon-based fuels diminishes. Successful waste management initiatives have helped address some aspects of the plastic pollution problem, but increasing production threatens to overwhelm these systems. Regulators are hungry for solutions, and actors that organize around solutions have opportunities to shape future policy development. Incumbent fossil fuel interests facing the threat of market collapse enjoy relatively low barriers to cooperation, presenting an opportunity for influence. With public discourse focused on plastic pollution, petrochemical firms can improve their public image through involvement in solutions. While there are costs associated with this path, losing product markets is a much greater threat. Thus, industry incentives prioritize participation in voluntary environmental programs.