Navigating climate change uncertainty: a three-study investigation of a short-term intervention on epistemic beliefs and multiple text integration

Abstract

Individuals hold topic-specific epistemic beliefs about the nature of knowledge and knowing within a domain. These beliefs span dimensions related to the nature of knowledge (e.g., simplicity and certainty) and the nature of knowing (e.g., sources and justification). While epistemic beliefs are generally stable, they are also amenable to change—particularly in response to targeted interventions.This dissertation presents three experiments investigating whether a brief textual intervention can prompt epistemic change in the context of climate science, and whether such change affects how individuals comprehend and integrate multiple texts. Experiment 1 tested whether an epistemic sensitization text targeting topic-specific epistemic certainty could lead to differences in participants’ beliefs. Results showed statistically significant differences in beliefs about the certainty of knowledge within climate science, suggesting that even short interventions can promote epistemic change. Experiment 2 assessed whether these changes in beliefs translated to improved multiple text comprehension and integration. No significant effects were found. Experiment 3 further explored whether multiple text integration tasks themselves could contribute to epistemic change, either alone or in conjunction with the intervention, but again yielded null results. Together, these findings provide preliminary evidence that epistemic beliefs—particularly beliefs about the certainty of knowledge—can be influenced through brief interventions. However, the effects of such changes on downstream comprehension processes remain uncertain. This work contributes to ongoing efforts to understand how to support learners in navigating complex, uncertain topics like climate change and may inform future educational strategies aimed at fostering critical thinking in information-rich, and often misinformation-rich, environments.