Climate change, forest composition, and outdoor recreation in northeastern Minnesota

Abstract

Climate change will likely result in a change in the composition of northern Minnesota forests by the end of the century, affecting outdoor recreation, which is a valuable ecosystem service as well as a key economic driver for the state with over $4 billion in annual expenditures in hunting, fishing, and wildlife viewing. Yet, the links between climate change, forest composition, and outdoor recreation have not been well studied. Current research finds that deer can also affect the links between climate change, forest composition, and outdoor recreation. In this dissertation, I examine and evaluate the links between these four main variables: climate change, forest composition, deer, and outdoor recreation, and a variety of other relevant predictors, using a combination of econometric modeling and spatial analysis applied to region-specific data in the Laurentian Mixed Forest Province (LMF) of northern Minnesota. My results improve understanding of these complex relationships to better inform Minnesota’s climate adaptation strategies and contribute to the literature on ecosystem services.