Iraq and U.S. Military Policy Beyond 2011

Abstract

Over the past two decades and in particular the past six years, Iraq has retained a prominent role in United States foreign policy. With violence down 90% from 2007, a stronger Iraqi central government in place, a new American administration, and a smaller U.S. military mission, Iraq no longer occupies a central military focus in U.S. foreign policy. However, looking at Iraq’s trajectory since 2003 it is useful to analyze potential problem areas in Iraq, future American military resources, and the projected outcomes. Viewing Iraq at the highest level of national importance makes for an interesting policy dilemma when resources are constrained by an economic downturn and a concentration on the war in Afghanistan. Although Iraq has made enormous progress, particularly over the past three years, there are dangers that could cause the U.S. to face difficult policy questions as it relates to Iraq over the next decade. This paper will examine the current U.S. and Iraqi trends that are shaping U.S. foreign policy as well as the current state of U.S. political opinion and thought about the Iraq War. Keeping in mind the current trends and trajectories of U.S. and Iraq politics, I will examine potential contingencies in Iraq and outline a set of policy recommendations to deal with these possible futures.