A Public Health Perspective on Climate Change-Induced Cemetery Subsidence in Alaska (2025-04-18)

Abstract

Permafrost thaw-induced infrastructure subsidence has become a major issue in Alaskan communities. Burial grounds and cemeteries in coastal Alaska are experiencing rapid subsidence, however, they are often overlooked as a source of community infrastructure. Here, we analyze current and projected permafrost thaw affecting Alaskan cemeteries to assess potential public health risks associated with historical epidemic graves experiencing rapid thaw and develop an epidemiological timeline for mass thaw events. Using SNAP projections of mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) data under Representative Controlled Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 matched with known grave depths from LiDAR, ground survey, and archival documents, we show that though these graves were between 1.8 and 2.5m in depth at internment, most graves are now only between 0.5 and 1.5m deep (with some as shallow as ~25cm), and some cemeteries are at risk of a mass thaw event by as early as 2030 under RCP 8.5. Rapid climate change induced thaw of these cemeteries will initiate mass decomposition events that have public health implications for clean water, local food webs, and general community safety given lack of robust healthcare infrastructure in rural environments. We argue that the risks of thawing permafrost bound cemeteries under climate change is an emerging public health threat in the Arctic. We hope to provide thaw-timing data to communities and public health officials to prevent and mitigate public health risks of mass decomposition events due to thawing permafrost.