Retrovirus transmission dynamics in the Florida panther (Puma concolor coryi)

Abstract

Outbreaks of infectious diseases can have major consequences for public health, food security, and conservation, yet drivers of pathogen transmission are often poorly understood. In transmission models, transmission is generally considered to be a product of contact rates and the probability of transmission, given contact (i.e., transmissibility). Contact rates and patterns are generally easier to empirically observe, particularly with expansions in remote sensing technologies. However, these technologies are imperfect and sampling guidelines for their use in disease studies are generally lacking. Further, both contact rates and transmissibility can be modified by heterogeneities important for subsequent pathogen transmission. For example, transmissibility can be affected by heterogeneities in host defenses, body condition, etc., and many of these factors may even covary with heterogeneities in contact rates. This complexity can thereby muddy our understanding of the ultimate drivers of transmission processes. A holistic approach is therefore needed to move beyond these limitations and help explain why individuals interact and transmit. In this dissertation, I fill this gap by reviewing (Chapter 1) and testing (Chapters 2 and 3) innovative methods for determining drivers of transmission in natural systems, predominantly focusing on a naturally occurring model (representative) system: feline retroviruses in the Florida panther (Puma concolor coryi). I then implement this new knowledge in an applied context: optimizing pathogen control in endangered panthers (Chapter 4). The findings reported here can improve the ability to identify drivers of transmission across a range of host-pathogen systems, and represent important progress for improving outbreak prevention and management for the benefit of human, animal, and ecosystem health.