Make Us Great Again: The Causes and Consequences of Declinism in Great Powers

Abstract

Dominant narratives of international decline emerge in great powers frequently, often independent of ‘objective’ measures of international decline. Such narratives frequently sustain policies of global expansion to save face, regain lost glory, and reverse decline. Yet we have little understanding of when and why narratives of international decline become dominant, why they resonate, or their policy consequences. When, and why, does declinism emerge and become salient in great powers? As narratives of decline become or are dominant, what policies are advanced in the name of reversing the country’s international decline? Using computerized text analyses of UK parliamentary speech and newspapers and US congressional and presidential speech and newspapers, I track declinism in political discourse in both countries between 1945 and the 2000s. I then explain when declinism becomes a live issue in great powers. I show how different narratives of decline prescribe different polices or behaviors for overcoming decline.