Browsing by Subject "trade"
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Item Border Barometer(Border Policy Research Institute, 2021) McKinley Research Group; Border Policy Research Institute, Western Washington University; Geoffrey Hale, University of Lethbridge; University of Minnesota Duluth. Bureau of Business and Economic Research; Cross-Border Institute, University of Windsor; Kathryn Friedman, SUNY Buffalo; Jeffrey Ayres, Saint Michael's College; Stefano Tijerina, University of MaineItem The Economic Impact of the Canada/Northeastern Minnesota Relationship on the Arrowhead Region of Minnesota(University of Minnesota Duluth, 2016) Haynes, Monica; Chiodi Grensing, Gina; Burke, Andrew; Haedtke, KarenItem The Economic Impact of the Canada/Northeastern Minnesota Trade Relationship(University of Minnesota Duluth, 2018) Hook, Alexander; Haynes, Monica; Chiodi Grensing, Gina; Ecklund, Hattie; Carter, CathieItem Essays in International Trade(2023-07) Phillips, PaulThis dissertation consists of three chapters, and contains analysis of trends in international trade along the spatial and dynamic dimensions. In the first chapter, I review recent papers relevant to my areas of study, and highlight some areas which I believe the recent literature to be overlooking. The second chapter uses a static trade model and 2018 data on a panel of 197 metropolitan statistical areas to estimate import penetration rates for cities across the U.S. Results from this chapter show that more densely populated metropolitan areas are more exposed to foreign imports than cities with a lower population density, but are not necessarily more adversely affected by an increase in tariffs because compared to more spread--out areas they have a greater ability to substitute locally made goods for imported goods. The third chapter is my job--market paper, and constructs a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model of trade between the United States and the rest of the world to investigate why the pandemic affected services trade more adversely than goods trade, in contrast to trade patterns during and after the 2008 financial crisis. Different parameters in the model represent the different channels through which trade would have reacted to the two downturns, and I calibrate these values to match trade and gross output data. I find that trade frictions play the biggest role in explaining services trade; decreasing costs of conducting trade in services helped prevent losses in services trade during the financial crisis, while increasing trade frictions decimated services trade during the pandemic. A decline in consumer preferences for goods drove the losses in goods trade during the financial crisis, while the absence of such a decline limited the losses in goods trade during the pandemic. A brief analysis of consumer welfare suggests that policymakers concerned about a pandemic-like situation should focus on reducing barriers to trade rather than stimulating demand.Item Essays on the effects of intellectual property rights on economic growth and production fragmentation, and the effects of unions on workplace safety(2016-07) Yang, JooyoungThe first essay entitled "What are the Effects of Intellectual Property Rights on Economic Growth? Empirical Analysis of East Asia, TRIPs and Development" estimates the effects of IPRs on economic growth in country level in four ways. First, I consider the growth effects of IPRs across all countries. Second, I consider whether the growth effects of IPRs are different for East Asia than for the rest of the world. Third, I consider whether the 1995 Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPs) altered the growth effects of IPRs. Fourth, I assess whether there is a tipping point in the relationship between IPRs and growth that is related to the development level of countries. I find that there is a (net) positive relationship between IPRs and economic growth across the countries of the world while the effect is ambiguous in East Asia. Also, the findings show evidence that growth in the post-TRIPs period deviates from that of the entire period in a positive way; yet these positive effects are more modest for East Asia. Finally I find there is a break point that alters the effects of IPRs before and after the TRIPs. The second essay, "Effects of Strengthening Intellectual Property Rights on Global Value Chain", studies the effects of IPRs on exports especially, exports embodying exchange of intermediate inputs. First I consider how stronger IPRs affect exports in sectoral level in generalized factor-proportions framework. To consider an exchange of intermediate inputs, I construct a measure of value added contents of exports and gross exports using global input-output data from World Input-Output Database (WIOD). Second, I investigate how IPRs affect production fragmentation estimated as VAX ratio which represents production fragmentation. I employ the empirical approach in which exports at the industry level are explained as a function of country factor endowment and interactions with industry factor intensities. The evidence shows that a high level of patent protection is associated with high value added exports and gross exports in patent-intensive industries. Second, I find that higher patent protection leads less international fragmentation in patent-intensive industries. In the third essay entitled "Effects of Unionization on Workplace-Safety Enforcement: Regression-Discontinuity Evidence", I study how union certification affects the enforcement of workplace-safety laws. To generate credible causal estimates of certification effects, I employ regression discontinuity. I compare changes in outcomes in establishments where unions barely won representation elections to changes in outcomes in establishments where union barely lost such elections. The study combines two main datasets: the census of National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) representation elections and the Occupational Safety and Health Administrationâ s (OSHA) enforcement database since 1985. From the results, I find evidence of positive effects of union certification on establishmentâ s rate of OSHA inspection, the share of inspections carried out in the presence of a labor representative, violations cited, and penalties assessed.Item Essays on Trade under Uncertainty(2022-05) Carreras Valle, Maria JoseThis dissertation consists of three chapters focused on the role of uncertainty in trade. The first chapter studies trade policy uncertainty in an environment with multiple stages of production. The recent increase in trade policy uncertainty affects a variety of industries, and in particular, uncertainty is important for industries whose final good is produced in multiple stages that are located across different countries. These industries are the most concerned about trade policy and reduce investment during uncertainty periods. This paper analyzes trade policy uncertainty in a two-country dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium model with multistage production where a firm?s decisions today depends on the future tariff path. Studies with one stage of production that measure the effect of trade policy find that uncertainty, as a second moment shock, does not play a big role in explaining the changes observed in the economy. Introducing multistage production, which generates a magnified response of trade to tariff changes, provides a better mechanism to analyze the role uncertainty in future tariffs plays in the economy. In the second chapter, I revisit the trend of U.S. manufacturing inventories and the role of delivery times. U.S. manufacturing inventories have been increasing since 2005, reversing a declining trend that lasted for decades. The rise is observed across U.S. manufacturing industries and types of inventories. While the long term decline is well-understood as a consequence of improvements in transportation and information technology, the reversal of the trend has not yet been studied. This paper explores the role of increasing delivery times due to the creation of global supply chains. As foreign inputs become cheaper, firms choose to source more inputs from abroad, and in particular inputs from China which face long delivery times and frequent delays. This increases the firms' exposure to volatility in demand leading to a greater incentive to hold inventories. I build a dynamic trade model that features stochastic delivery times for different inputs in the presence of idiosyncratic demand risk. In this framework, firms face a tradeoff when sourcing inputs from different locations between their relative price and delivery times. I find that the initial decrease in delivery times explains $61\%$ of the decline in inventories from 1992 to 2004, and the increase in reliance on inputs from China, which face longer and more volatile delivery times, explains $34\%$ of the increase in inventories from 2005 to 2018. In the third chapter, I explore the cost of supply chain disruptions and examine the role of inventories as insurance. Supply chain disruptions have become increasingly common in today's integrated world. As the risk of disruptions increases, so does the value of inventories, as firms rely on their inventories to smooth and insure their production process. In this paper, I build a model to study supply chain disruption in an environment with demand risk and inventory storage. Then, I use the model to study the recent supply chain disruptions cause by COVID-19. I allow for specially long delivery delays of inputs, and sudden rise of sales, and track a firm's choices from 2020 onwards. With this model, I am able to quantify the effect on prices, analyze the use of inventories to insure and smooth out production during the period, and study its effect on sourcing choices and imported inputs substitutability during this period of long delivery times. Finally, I study the effects of the increasing and more volatile delivery times in firms sourcing choices. The rise in delivery times increases the cost of sourcing from farther countries, and could force firms to change or diversify their current supply chain networks.Item Minnesota as a Host for Foreign Direct Investment: A Comparison with Other States.(Center for Urban and Regional Affairs, University of Minnesota, 2000) Kudrle, Robert T.