Browsing by Subject "income tax structure"

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    Change You Can’t Believe In: How Illinois Failed to Pass a Progressive Income Tax in 2020
    (2021-11) Butler, Peter
    There are just certain moments in history where you can recall exactly what you were doing. I know for myself; it’s thinking about seeing Senator Barack Obama in 2008 introducing Senator Biden as his running-mate. Somehow, that moment was related to the intensity I felt the night of November 3rd, 2020 – election night. Like many Americans, I was glued to my television as election results were reported state-by-state. The preliminary results suggested that another polling error had occurred, particularly across the Midwest. Despite polling suggesting Joe Biden would comfortably coast across the Rust Belt, he was in extremely tight races in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. As a native Midwesterner who grew up in Illinois and resides in Minnesota, I was mesmerized by the results – but not just because of the topline numbers. Indeed, dozens of states were simultaneously voting on ballot initiatives. Illinois had a high-profile referendum to amend the state’s constitution to switch from a flat income tax to a graduated (progressive) income tax structure. I grew up in Illinois and felt this was a no-brainer that would easily pass. Despite my confidence and limited polling showing the proposal had broad support and the state’s political favorability towards Democrats, I still had some deep anxiety about the proposal’s chances. Even within my own family, all of whom were strong Democrats, my own mother stated weeks before the election she would not vote for the progressive income tax! Ultimately, the Associated Press declared the ballot initiative defeated the next morning, with an eventual margin of 47-53 percent (O’Connor, 2020). A more detailed analysis would illustrate that the ballot initiative underperformed Joe Biden in all 18 congressional districts (Illinois Elections, 2020).