Browsing by Subject "expert elicitation"

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    Self-reporting of risk pathways and parameter values for foot and mouth disease in slaughter cattle from alternative production systems by Kenyan and Ugandan veterinarians
    (2021-08) Adamchick, Julie; Rich, Karl M.; Perez, Andres M.
    Countries in which foot and mouth disease (FMD) is endemic may face bans on the export of FMD-susceptible livestock and products because of the associated risk for transmission of FMD virus. Risk assessment is an essential tool for demonstrating the fitness of one’s goods for the international marketplace and for improving animal health. However, it is difficult to obtain the necessary data for such risk assessments in many countries where FMD is present. This study bridged the gaps of traditional participatory and expert elicitation approaches by partnering with veterinarians from the National Veterinary Services of Kenya (n=13) and Uganda (n=10) enrolled in an extended capacity-building program to systematically collect rich, local knowledge in a format appropriate for formal quantitative analysis. Participants mapped risk pathways and quantified variables that determine the risk of infection among cattle at slaughter originating from each of four beef production systems in each country. Findings highlighted that risk processes differ between management systems, that disease and sale are not always independent events, and that events on the risk pathway are influenced by the actions and motivations of value chain actors. The results provide necessary information for evaluating the risk of FMD among cattle pre-harvest in Kenya and Uganda and provide a framework for similar evaluation in other endemic settings.
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    Supplementary files for an expert-based risk ranking framework for assessing potential pathogens in the live baitfish trade
    (2022-05-06) McEachran, Margaret C.; Travis, Dominic A.; Phelps, Nicholas B. D.; Sampedro, Fernando; thom4412@umn.edu; McEachran, Margaret C.; Minnesota Aquatic Invasive Species Research Center (MAISRC)
    The purpose of this study was to develop a “hazard identification” and ranking tool to identify the pathogens that pose the highest risk to wild fish from the release of live baitfish by recreational anglers in freshwater systems. We developed a screening protocol and semi-quantitative stochastic risk ranking framework by combining published data with expert elicitation (n=25) and applied the framework to identify high-priority pathogens for the bait supply in Minnesota, USA. Normalized scores were developed for seven risk criteria (likelihood of transfer, prevalence in bait supply, likelihood of colonization, current distribution, economic impact if established, ecological impact if established, and host species) to characterize a pathogen’s ability to persist in the bait supply and cause impacts to wild fish species of concern. Of an initial list of 33, 15 potential pathogens met the criteria for inclusion and were evaluated using the semi-quantitative framework. The generalist macroparasite Schizocotyle acheilognathi was identified as presenting highest overall threat to wild Minnesota fish, followed by the microsporidian Ovipleistophora ovariae, and viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus. Our findings contribute to the development of risk-based prevention and surveillance methods in support of front-line managers charged with maintaining both the aquatic sporting industry and sustainable, healthy natural resources in Minnesota. In addition, the ranking framework provides a standardized conceptual framework for prioritizing management as novel disease needs emerge.