Browsing by Subject "Risk analysis"

Now showing 1 - 3 of 3
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    Enhancing food defense: risk managers' perceptions, criticality assessments, and a novel method for objectively determining food systems' criticality
    (2014-03) Huff
    This research focused on evaluating the perceptions of food defense risk management by state officials, evaluating the validity of a criticality assessment created by the National Center for Food Protection and Defense (NCFPD), and developing a new geographic information system (GIS) based criticality assessment method. Specific objectives included: (1) investigating and reporting the history of food and agriculture criticality assessments; (2) conducting a survey to identify state officials' risk perceptions related to food and agriculture criticality; (3) analyzing the data collected by the most widely used criticality assessment method (i.e., Food and Agriculture Systems Criticality Assessment Tool); and, (4) developing a new method to objectively measure food system criticality.
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    A framework for the evaluation of strategies to reduce risk of foot and mouth disease transmission associated with the trade of beef from East African cattle systems: a progressive and participatory approach
    (2021-09) Adamchick, Julie
    granularity needed in places that tend to have diverse and informal value chains, and b) tapping into unwritten local knowledge / subject matter expertise in a way that generated credible information in a format that can be used for quantitative analysis. The dual training-research activity was also a beneficial experience for participants to model and analyze a problem and system from their professional work. The second aim was to estimate the probability (risk) of FMD at slaughter under current conditions -- the baseline risk. This required quantifying input values and distributions for the variables identified in aim one and translating the conceptual relationships into a probabilistic mathematical model. The risk estimates and sensitivity analyses provided insight about influential factors that could be leveraged to lower the probability of FMD among beef cattle at slaughter from select populations. The third and final aim was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of possible interventions that could reduce risk in specific value chains. Scenarios were generated using the insights from aim two and compared based on estimated costs and level of risk expected to achieve. This provided insight about specific steps that could be taken as well as a more general gradient of what scale of risk reduction might be expected from a given investment. This information can be combined with information about benefits, limitations, and tradeoffs to support decisions about investments related to FMD control and ambitions for international trade. The output and process of this work provide useful contributions to improve decision-making regarding investments for animal health and trade in regions with endemic trade-sensitive diseases. In Kenya, a feedlot-focused, abattoir-partnered approach may reach the lowest achievable risk. Specific opportunities need to be evaluated in terms of the capacity of necessary stakeholders, cost of sanitary and traceability investments, costs of production, and competitiveness of the resulting product. In both Kenya and Uganda, regionally-focused investments that combined livestock identification and traceability systems with vaccination among willing producers in partnership with an ambitious export abattoir improve FMD control and animal health while reducing risk in the product produced and taking steps toward foundational traceability and disease control capacity. The framework of incremental progress with a focus on risk of the final commodity complements the Progressive Control Pathway for FMD, providing a way to benchmark slow and steady forward motion, and should be used to evaluate disease control and SPS interventions that intend to achieve market access. Participatory approaches that embed data collection for decision analysis into training opportunities for local professionals are a rich way to improve the quality of data and analysis while also building capacity of participants to appreciate the complexity of systems in which they work and the value of analytical approaches to decision-making. Key findings from each chapter: • Aim 1 (chapter 3): o Risk processes differ between management systems, with an especially clear delineation in Kenya between agro-pastoral/pastoral and ranching/feedlot system groups-- highlighting the important interactions between management factors and health or risk dynamics. o FMD infection and sale for slaughter are not always independent events for cattle in Kenya and Uganda, suggesting it would be judicious to characterize the relationship between sale and disease of cattle in the population of study when examining the movement or sale of animals in endemic environments. o The motivations and actions of value chain actors influence the ultimate risk level in a product, demonstrated through the need to include a distinct event for whether or not a disease event is reported after a positive diagnosis. • Aim 2 (chapter 4): o The overall risk of FMD infection at slaughter was substantially lower for cattle originating from Kenyan feedlots and ranches compared to the other six systems evaluated. o In Uganda, semi-intensive and ranching systems showed the potential to reach similarly low risk levels if able to severely limit the exposure to new infections after leaving the herd. o Reduction or elimination of commingling before slaughter was the most effective intervention to reduce risk of infection at slaughter for most systems. o For Kenyan ranches, the detection and removal of infected animals was identified as a potentially important point for intervention. • Aim 3 (chapter 5): o Preventive mass vaccination was the least cost-effective strategy evaluated, even for a relatively small region. It would require a relatively high investment for not the best return with many obstacles on the path, and may not be an advisable strategy especially for the purpose of targeting export opportunities. o Strategies that involved voluntary rather than compulsory participation had more favorable cost-effectiveness ratios. o The greatest reduction in risk at the lowest cost was obtained through a voluntary program that combined a livestock ID and traceability system with biannual preventive vaccination and a premium price at slaughter for participants.
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    Oral history interview with Lance Hoffman by Rebecca Slayton
    (Charles Babbage Institute, 2014-07-01) Hoffman, Lance
    This interview with security pioneer Lance Hoffman discusses his entrance into the field of computer security and privacy—including earning a B.S. in math at the Carnegie Institute of Technology, interning at SDC, and earning a PhD at Stanford University—before turning to his research on computer security risk management at as a Professor at the University of California–Berkeley and George Washington University. He also discusses the relationship between his PhD research on access control models and the political climate of the late 1960s, and entrepreneurial activities ranging from the creation of a computerized dating service to the starting of a company based upon the development of a decision support tool, RiskCalc. Hoffman also discusses his work with the Association for Computing Machinery and IEEE Computer Society, including his role in helping to institutionalize the ACM Conference on Computers, Freedom, and Privacy. The interview concludes with some reflections on the current state of the field of cybersecurity and the work of his graduate students. This interview is part of a project conducted by Rebecca Slayton and funded by an ACM History Committee fellowship on “Measuring Security: ACM and the History of Computer Security Metrics.”