Browsing by Subject "Real estate prices"

Now showing 1 - 6 of 6
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    The evolution of choice set formation in dwelling and location with rising prices: A decadal panel analysis in the Greater Toronto Area
    (Journal of Transport and Land Use, 2021) Hawkins, Jason; Nurul Habib, Khandker
    Home location choice is based on both the characteristics of the dwelling (e.g., size, style, number of bedrooms) and the location (e.g., proximity to work, quality of schools, accessibility). Recent years have seen a steep increase in the price of housing in many major cities. In this research, we examine how these price increases are affecting the types of dwelling and locations considered by households. A large sample of real estate listings from 2006 and 2016 from the Greater Toronto Area is used to develop the empirical models. Two recently developed discrete choice models are used in the study: a nested logit model with latent class feedback (LCF) and a semi-compensatory independent availability logit (SCIAL) model. A method of alternative aggregation is proposed to overcome the computational hurdle that often impedes the estimation of choice set models. We find a significant increase in the probability of larger households considering townhouses and apartments over detached single-family dwellings between 2006 and 2016.
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    Impacts of light rail in a mid-sized city: Evidence from Olsztyn, Poland
    (Journal of Transport and Land Use, 2021) Gadziński, Jędrzej; Radzimski, Adam
    Investments in light rail transit (LRT) have become increasingly popular solutions to promote sustainable urban transportation. However, their impacts on cities are still subject to discussion in the academic community. There is a clear need to better understand the potential impacts of LRT projects, particularly in contexts other than major cities. In this study, we focus on the Olsztyn tram project, which has been implemented in a city of 173,000 residents situated in northeastern Poland. The paper combines different perspectives and data sources, including a study of residents’ stated preferences concerning travel behavior and modelling of housing price effects using the difference-in-differences approach. Our results suggest that the Olsztyn tram project led to a moderate change in travel behavior by increasing the frequency of public transport use but did not result in a substantial shift away from car commuting. Concerning the property market, a decline in prices was observed during the construction phase, but no statistically significant effects were found after completion.
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    Metro station inauguration, housing prices, and transportation accessibility: Tehran case study
    (Journal of Transport and Land Use, 2021) Yazdanifard, Yekta; Joshaghani, Hosein; Talebian, Masoud
    The opening of a new metro station, as a mode of the transportation corridor, potentially could have different effects on housing prices. We have investigated its effect on the value of residential properties around those stations, using data from large expansions of the metro network in Tehran, Iran. In the period of our study (April 2010 to December 2018), forty-five metro stations were inaugurated in Tehran. We use a difference-in-difference regression method to identify the causal effect of interest, where adjacent properties are used as the treatment group and similar but distant properties as the control group. The results indicate that, on average, the adjacent properties are affected by a 3.7 percent increase in price relative to distant properties. We also extend our study by categorizing new metro stations according to the extent of ex-ante access to other modes of public transportation such as bus rapid transit (BRT). We find 2 to 11 percent positive effect of new metro stations in regions with lower public transport, while in regions with ex-ante extensive public transportation system, we find less than 2 percent positive effect.
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    Microsimulating parcel-level land use and activity-based travel: Development of a prototype application in San Francisco
    (Journal of Transport and Land Use, 2010) Waddell, Paul; Wang, Liming; Charlton, Billy; Olsen, Aksel
    This paper develops a prototype of an integrated microsimulation model system combining land use at a parcel level with activity-based travel in San Francisco, California. The paper describes the motivation for the model system, its design, data development, and preliminary application and testing. The land use model is implemented using UrbanSim and the Open Platform for Urban Simulation (OPUS), using parcels and buildings rather than zones or grid cells as spatial units of analysis. Measures of accessibility are derived from the San Francisco SF-CHAMP activity-based travel model, and the predicted locations of households and business establishments are used to update the micro-level inputs needed for the activity-based travel model. Data used in the model include business establishments linked to parcels over several years, and a panel of parcels that allow modeling of parcel development over time. This paper describes several advances that have not been previously integrated in an operational model system, including the use of parcels and buildings as units of location for consumers and developers of real estate, the use of business establishments to represent economic activity, and the interfacing of this microsimulation land use model with a microsimulation activity-based travel model. Computational performance and development effort were found to be modest, with land use model run times averaging one minute per year on a current desktop computer, and two to three minutes on a current laptop. By contrast, long run times of the travel model suggest that there may be a need to reconsider the level of complexity in the travel model for an integrated land use and transportation model system application to be broadly usable. The land use model is currently in refinement, being used to identify input data and model specification adjustments needed in order to bring it into operational use, which is planned over the next several months.
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    Modelling hedonic residential rents for land use and transport simulation while considering spatial effects
    (Journal of Transport and Land Use, 2010) Löchl, Michael; Axhausen, Kay
    The application of UrbanSim requires land or real estate price data for the study area. These can be difficult to obtain, particularly when tax assessor data and data from commercial sources are unavailable. The article discusses an alternative method of data acquisition and applies hedonic modeling techniques in order to generate the required data. Many studies have highlighted that ordinary least square (OLS) regression approaches lack the ability to consider spatial dependency and spatial heterogeneity, consequently leading to biased and inefficient estimations. Therefore, a comprehensive data set is used for modeling residential asking rents by applying and comparing OLS, spatial autoregressive, and geographically weighted regression (GWR) techniques. The latter technique performed best with regard to model fit, but the issue of correlated coefficients favored a spatial simultaneous autoregressive model. Overall, the article reveals that when housing markets are a particular concern in UrbanSim applications, significant efforts are needed for the price data generation and modeling. The study concludes with further development potentials for UrbanSim.
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    Spatiotemporal effects of proximity to metro extension on housing price dynamics in Manhattan, New York City
    (Journal of Transport and Land Use, 2021) Guan, ChengHe; Tan, Mark Junjie; Peiser, Richard
    Investment in public transportation such as a metro line extension is often capitalized partially into housing values due to the spatiotemporal effects. Using housing transaction data from 2014 to 2019, this paper studies the Second Avenue Subway or Q-line extension in New York City’s Manhattan borough. Multiple metro station catchment areas were investigated using spatial autocorrelation-corrected hedonic pricing models to capture the variation of housing price dynamics. The results indicate that properties in closer proximity to the Q-line extension received higher price discounts. The effect varied by occupancy type and building form: condominiums experienced the highest price discount, while walk-up and elevator co-ops experienced a price premium. After controlling for location variations, we observed price discounts on the westside and price premiums on the eastside of the Q-line. Residential properties within 150 m west to the Q-line extension received the highest price discount post operation, while on the eastside, properties in the same proximity received the highest price premium. The anticipation effect varies by distance to metro extension stations, both before and after the operation of metro line extension. We discuss the disruption of metro construction on the housing market depending on housing type, location variation, and changes over time.