Browsing by Subject "Foot and Mouth Disease"

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    Risk Assessment for the Transmission of Foot and Mouth Disease via Movement of Swine and Cattle Carcasses from FMD-infected Premises to a Disposal Site
    (2014) Slingluff, Jamie; Sampedro, Fernando; Goldsmith, Timothy J.
    The present risk assessment proactively evaluated the risk of infecting susceptible livestock by the movement of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) infected carcasses (swine and cattle) from FMD infected premises. The risk assessment evaluated the most up to date available science and solicited opinion from experts when data was lacking. This risk assessment is proactive in nature and the scenarios, pathways and depopulation practices assessed were based on the current practices and regulations applicable during an animal disease outbreak in the US. The characteristics, types of conveyance methods, and equipment used to transport the infected carcasses were provided from expert opinion and verified through site visits. Different modeling techniques were used to estimate the number of infected animals during a FMD outbreak at various time intervals, the total time estimated from infection to depopulation and the total amount of FMD virus (FMDv) contained in a disposal truck. The main outcomes of the risk assessment should be reviewed if needed as new data becomes available in the future. Risk estimation: The risk of FMD infection of susceptible livestock associated with the movement of swine and cattle carcasses from FMD infected premises to a disposal site during a FMD outbreak in the United States is negligible when using a standard rendering truck (tailgate sealed and tarp cover) and a Bio-Zip bag, and between negligible and low when using a standard rendering truck or a roll-off /dump truck with a Bio-Zip bag. The risk level in other scenarios (uncovered standard rendering trucks, uncovered roll-off/dump trucks, covered rolloff/ dump trucks and a liner) is between moderate and high. Main results: Time for FMD detection was estimated by a disease spread model to be between 4-10 days for swine and beef cattle and 3-9 days for dairy cattle premises of different sizes. Total time from infection to depopulation (including detection and confirmation) for the first FMD infected case was estimated to be between 10-15 days for swine, 8-12 days for dairy and 10-14 days for beef cattle premises. Total time estimated for subsequent FMD cases was between 7-12 days for swine, 6-9 for dairy and 8-11 days for beef cattle premises. Most of the animals (>65% for the first case and >81% for subsequent cases) were viremic at the time of depopulation. The average concentration of FMDv in a carcass in experimental inoculation studies was 103 Plaque- Forming Unit per gram (PFU/g) for a pig carcass and 106 PFU/g for a cattle carcass. The total amount of infected carcasses moved to the disposal site (relative to the size of the animal carcass and the capacity of the truck trailer) was between 23-390 cattle carcasses and 117-780 pig carcasses per truck. Any small amount of body fluids (1 mL) would contain virus that is equal and greatly exceeds the infective dose by oral and inhalation route for pigs and cattle. The likelihood that swine and cattle carcasses moved from FMD positive premises will contain an infective dose was high. The use of a Bio-Zip bag in a standard rendering truck (tailgate sealed and tarp cover) reduces the likelihood of leakage, spillage and aerosolization to negligible.
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    Risk prioritization of pork supply movements during an FMD outbreak in the US - Data and Materials
    (2016-08-22) Patterson, Gilbert R; Hofelich Mohr, Alicia; Snider, Tim; Lindsay, Thomas A; Davies, Peter; Goldsmith, Tim; Sampedro, Fernando; patte606@umn.edu; Patterson, Gilbert R
    In the event of a Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) outbreak in the U.S., local, state, and federal authorities will implement a foreign animal disease emergency response plan restricting the pork supply chain movements and likely disrupting the continuity of the swine industry business. To minimize disruptions of the food supply while providing an effective response in an outbreak, it is necessary to ensure eradication strategies and risk management efforts are focused towards the most critical movements; those that are most necessary for business continuity and most likely to contribute to disease spread. This study recruited experts from production, harvest, retail, and allied pork industries to assess 30 common pork supply movements for their industry criticality. Movements spanned five categories: equipment, live animal production, genetics, harvest, and people. Experts were recruited via email to the American Association of Swine Veterinarians (AASV) mailing list and their assessments were collected via an online survey. For each of the thirty movements, experts were asked to rate the risk of FMD spread using a four-point scale, from no or slight risk of disease spread to high risk of disease spread. Then they were asked to estimate the time at which the restriction of each movement during an outbreak would have a significant negative consequence on business (e.g., high likelihood of bankruptcy, negative impact on animal welfare). These two facets of each movement were analyzed to provide an initial guide for prioritization of risk management efforts and resources to be better prepared in the event of a FMD outbreak in the US.