Browsing by Author "Zhong, Ming"
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Item Solutions to cultural, organizational, and technical challenges in developing PECAS models for the cities of Shanghai, Wuhan, and Guangzhou(Journal of Transport and Land Use, 2018) Zhong, Ming; Wang, Wanle; Hunt, John D.; Pan, P. Haixiao; Chen, Tao; Li, Jianzhong; Yang, Wei; Zhang, KeMassive construction of transportation infrastructure and fast growth of private car ownership have brought unprecedented changes in land use and transportation systems to cities and regions in many developing countries. Traditional “four-step” travel demand models, which are not designed to assess transport policies under the case of rapid land-use change, cannot be used to achieve coordinated planning of transport and land use. Therefore, there is a pressing need to develop and use integrated land-use transport models (ILUTMs), which consider interactions among socioeconomic activities, urban land use, and transportation development, for policy analysis and for guiding the progressive urbanization process taking place in many parts of these countries. In light of this, efforts have been invested in developing production, exchange, and consumption allocation system (PECAS) models for the cities of Shanghai, Wuhan, and Guangzhou in mainland China. This paper presents the cultural, organizational, and technical challenges encountered in the development of PECAS models for the cities of Shanghai, Wuhan, and Guangzhou and the mitigating solutions from the development teams for taking up or working around them. The solutions and discussions presented in this paper should be interesting to researchers and practitioners for developing ILUTMs in the context of a developing country like China.Item Testing microsimulation uncertainty of the parcel-based space development module of the Baltimore PECAS Demo Model(Journal of Transport and Land Use, 2020) Wang, Wanle; Zhong, Ming; Zhang, Yiming; Li, Yaqiu; Ma, Xiaofeng; Hunt, John Douglas; Abraham, John EdwardA precise and stable microsimulation space development module is fundamental for supporting various policy decision-making exercises related to land development. This paper studies the dynamics or uncertainty of outputs of the parcel-based space development module of an integrated land-use and transport forecasting model—the Baltimore PECAS Demo Model. It is tested with two sub-studies: (1) running the model three times over the entire planning window from 2000 to 2030; and (2) running the model 30 times just one year ahead from 2000 to 2001. The outputs obtained are used to analyze such dynamics or uncertainty. Study results from the first sub-study show that, in general, the system is stable and consistent over runs and time, as supported by a set of paired t-tests. However, the coefficient of variation (COV) measuring the variation of estimated space quantity by category over four cross-section years indicates that the differences among runs are increasing over time through the planning window. The COV test over the second sub-study indicates the estimated space quantity is stable for most of the zones, except for a small portion of zones with a small space quantity.