Browsing by Author "Wong, Shee Q"
Now showing 1 - 9 of 9
- Results Per Page
- Sort Options
Item The Causal Relationship Between the U.S. and Japanese Equity Markets(Bureau of Business and Economic Research, 1989-07) Kim, Hyung K; Wong, Shee QItem Causality and the Concentration Profits Controversy(Bureau of Business and Economic Research, 1986) Raab, Raymond L; Wong, Shee QInterindustry, cross-sectional studies of concentration and profitability assume, according to the market power doctrine, that concentration is an exogeneous variable, though this notion has been questioned at different times by a number of industrial organization economists. This study uses a time series approach to test the correctness of the conventional notion that market share determines profitability of an individual firm. Sims' causality tests were performed for three separate firms and the interrelationships over time between the firm's market share and rate of return were estimated (i.e., do changes in a firm's market share occur prior to changes in the firm's rate of return or do changes in the firm's rate of return occur prior to changes in a firm's market share). Two of the three firms examined failed to exhibit the unidirectional causality assumed by the conventional structure-performance paradigm. These results suggest that the cross-section, interindustry approach often uses industries as cases, which are aggregated from firms wherein the direction of causality of the profitability variable cannot be assumed.Item The Choice between Fixed and Variable Rate Mortgages: Evidence from National Data(Bureau of Business and Economic Research, 1987) O'Brien, A. Maureen; Wong, Shee QThis paper investigates the choice between fixed and adjustable rate mortgages based on national data. Using a probit specification, the choice theorectic model includes the mortgage price variables, borrower and city characteristics. Once intercity variations are controlled for, the likelihood ratio tests provide evidence that, in addition to the conventional price variables, both borrower and city characteristics play a significant role in the choice among mortgage instruments.Item Cyclically Adjusted Federal Budget and Policy Effectiveness(Bureau of Business and Economic Research, 1986-04-25) Wong, Shee QItem Forecasting State Tax Revenues: A Simple Alternative(Bureau of Business and Economic Research, 1985) Steinnes, Donald N; Wong, Shee QRecently the State of Minnesota experienced a fiscal emergency as a result, in part, of an inability to accurately forecast tax revenues. The approach used by the State is based on an econometric model that attempts to specify the linkages between the national and state economies. Such econometric models have been challenged because of their inability to forecast by those who propose a more mechanical, or statistical, approach. While econometric models estimate equations specified by theory, the statistical approach finds the best "model," or forecasting equation based on statistical criterion alone. Using a forecast error criterion, recent studies have shown that one fitting approach, vector autoregression (VAR) can outperform econometric models. Given the complexity of VAR, as opposed to some simpler statistical approaches available, a question arises as to whether VAR significantly out-forecasts such naive methods. In this paper a simple time series method, Box-Jenkins analysis, is used to forecast monthly revenues for Minnesota using data from 1970-84 and the results compare favorably to VAR and econometric models for both aggregate (total tax) and disaggregated (sales and income tax) specifications.Item Forecasting the Duluth Business Index (DBI): A Box-Jenkins Approach(Bureau of Business and Economic Research, 1985-10) Wong, Shee QItem Intercity Variations in Mortgage Composition(Bureau of Business and Economic Research, 1988) O'Brien, A. Maureen; Wong, Shee QThis paper examines the determinants of mortgage composition across cities. Mortgage composition is specified in terms of both the proportion of the number as well as the dollar amount of adjustable rate mortgages relative to the total amount of mortgages demanded. Our results suggest that in addition to mortgage price, variables reflecting borrower and city characteristics contribute significantly to explaining intercity variations in mortgage composition.Item The Lucas Critique: Time Series Evidence(Bureau of Business and Economic Research, 1986) Wong, Shee QItem Stock Returns, Expected Dividend, and Real Economic Activity(Bureau of Business and Economic Research, 1990-02) Vaidya, Ramesh; Wong, Shee Q