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Browsing by Author "Naess, Petter"

Now showing 1 - 5 of 5
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    Forecasting inaccuracies: a result of unexpected events, optimism bias, technical problems, or strategic misrepresentation?
    (Journal of Transport and Land Use, 2015) Naess, Petter; Andersen, Jeppe Astrup; Nicolaisen, Morten Skou; Strand, Arvid
    Based on the results from a questionnaire survey and qualitative interviews among different actors involved in traffic forecasting, this paper discusses what evidence can be found in support of competing explanations of forecasting errors. There are indications that technical problems and manipulation, and to a lesser extent optimism bias, may be part of the explanation of observed systematic biases in forecasting. In addition, unexpected events can render the forecasts erroneous, and many respondents and interviewees consider it to be simply not possible to make precise predictions about the future. The results give rise to some critical reflections about the reliability of project evaluations based on traffic forecasts susceptible to several systematic as well as random sources of error.
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    ‘New urbanism’ or metropolitan-level centralization? A comparison of the influences of metropolitan-level and neighborhood-level urban form characteristics on travel behavior
    (Journal of Transport and Land Use, 2011) Naess, Petter
    Based on a study in the Copenhagen Metropolitan Area, this paper compares the influences of macro-level and micro-level urban form characteristics on the respondents’ traveling distance by car on weekdays. The Copenhagen study shows that metropolitan-scale urban- structural variables generally exert stronger influences than neighborhood-scale built-environment characteristics on the amount of car travel. In particular, the location of the residence relative to the main city center of the metropolitan region shows a strong effect. Some local scale variables often described as influential in the literature, such as neighborhood street pattern, show no significant effect on car travel when provisions are made to control for the location of the dwelling relative to the city center.
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    Residential location, travel, and energy use in the Hangzhou Metropolitan Area
    (Journal of Transport and Land Use, 2010) Naess, Petter
    This paper presents the results of a study examining the influence of residential location on travel behavior in the Hangzhou Metropolitan Area, China. The location of the dwelling relative to the center hierarchy of the metropolitan area is found to exert a considerable influence on the travel behavior of the respondents. On average, living close to the center of Hangzhou contributes to less overall travel, a higher proportion of trips by bicycle and on foot, and lower consumption of energy for transport. The location of the dwelling relative to the closest second-order and third-order center also influences travel, but not to the same extent as proximity to the city center. These geographical differences in travel behavior are independent of residential preferences and of attitudes toward transport and environmental issues, and therefore cannot be explained by residential self-selection.
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    Response to Van Wee and Boarnet
    (Journal of Transport and Land Use, 2014) Naess, Petter
    This is a reaction to the paper available at https://hdl.handle.net/11299/171221.
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    Tempest in a teapot: The exaggerated problem of transport-related residential self-selection as a source of error in empirical studies
    (Journal of Transport and Land Use, 2014) Naess, Petter
    While numerous studies have investigated influences of built environment characteristics on travel behavior, many scholars are concerned about the confounding effect of residential self-selection. This paper argues that the existence of transport-attitude-based residential self-selection hardly represents any threat to the validity of the basic knowledge on how residential location within urban contexts influences travel behavior. The causal mechanisms by which residential location influences travel behavior exist regardless of whether or not transport-related residential self-selection occurs. Moreover, the cases presented in this paper suggest that residential self-selection based on attitudes to travel is unlikely to represent any great source of error for parameter estimates of the effects of residential location variables on travel behavior as long as “traditional” demographic and socioeconomic variables have already been accounted for. The doubts raised by certain scholars about the implications of attitude-based residential self-selection for the validity of the knowledge base of land use and transportation policies thus appear to be not very well-founded.