Browsing by Author "Adamchick, Julie"

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    A framework for the evaluation of strategies to reduce risk of foot and mouth disease transmission associated with the trade of beef from East African cattle systems: a progressive and participatory approach
    (2021-09) Adamchick, Julie
    granularity needed in places that tend to have diverse and informal value chains, and b) tapping into unwritten local knowledge / subject matter expertise in a way that generated credible information in a format that can be used for quantitative analysis. The dual training-research activity was also a beneficial experience for participants to model and analyze a problem and system from their professional work. The second aim was to estimate the probability (risk) of FMD at slaughter under current conditions -- the baseline risk. This required quantifying input values and distributions for the variables identified in aim one and translating the conceptual relationships into a probabilistic mathematical model. The risk estimates and sensitivity analyses provided insight about influential factors that could be leveraged to lower the probability of FMD among beef cattle at slaughter from select populations. The third and final aim was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of possible interventions that could reduce risk in specific value chains. Scenarios were generated using the insights from aim two and compared based on estimated costs and level of risk expected to achieve. This provided insight about specific steps that could be taken as well as a more general gradient of what scale of risk reduction might be expected from a given investment. This information can be combined with information about benefits, limitations, and tradeoffs to support decisions about investments related to FMD control and ambitions for international trade. The output and process of this work provide useful contributions to improve decision-making regarding investments for animal health and trade in regions with endemic trade-sensitive diseases. In Kenya, a feedlot-focused, abattoir-partnered approach may reach the lowest achievable risk. Specific opportunities need to be evaluated in terms of the capacity of necessary stakeholders, cost of sanitary and traceability investments, costs of production, and competitiveness of the resulting product. In both Kenya and Uganda, regionally-focused investments that combined livestock identification and traceability systems with vaccination among willing producers in partnership with an ambitious export abattoir improve FMD control and animal health while reducing risk in the product produced and taking steps toward foundational traceability and disease control capacity. The framework of incremental progress with a focus on risk of the final commodity complements the Progressive Control Pathway for FMD, providing a way to benchmark slow and steady forward motion, and should be used to evaluate disease control and SPS interventions that intend to achieve market access. Participatory approaches that embed data collection for decision analysis into training opportunities for local professionals are a rich way to improve the quality of data and analysis while also building capacity of participants to appreciate the complexity of systems in which they work and the value of analytical approaches to decision-making. Key findings from each chapter: • Aim 1 (chapter 3): o Risk processes differ between management systems, with an especially clear delineation in Kenya between agro-pastoral/pastoral and ranching/feedlot system groups-- highlighting the important interactions between management factors and health or risk dynamics. o FMD infection and sale for slaughter are not always independent events for cattle in Kenya and Uganda, suggesting it would be judicious to characterize the relationship between sale and disease of cattle in the population of study when examining the movement or sale of animals in endemic environments. o The motivations and actions of value chain actors influence the ultimate risk level in a product, demonstrated through the need to include a distinct event for whether or not a disease event is reported after a positive diagnosis. • Aim 2 (chapter 4): o The overall risk of FMD infection at slaughter was substantially lower for cattle originating from Kenyan feedlots and ranches compared to the other six systems evaluated. o In Uganda, semi-intensive and ranching systems showed the potential to reach similarly low risk levels if able to severely limit the exposure to new infections after leaving the herd. o Reduction or elimination of commingling before slaughter was the most effective intervention to reduce risk of infection at slaughter for most systems. o For Kenyan ranches, the detection and removal of infected animals was identified as a potentially important point for intervention. • Aim 3 (chapter 5): o Preventive mass vaccination was the least cost-effective strategy evaluated, even for a relatively small region. It would require a relatively high investment for not the best return with many obstacles on the path, and may not be an advisable strategy especially for the purpose of targeting export opportunities. o Strategies that involved voluntary rather than compulsory participation had more favorable cost-effectiveness ratios. o The greatest reduction in risk at the lowest cost was obtained through a voluntary program that combined a livestock ID and traceability system with biannual preventive vaccination and a premium price at slaughter for participants.
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    One coin, two sides: eliciting expert knowledge from training participants in a capacity-building program for veterinary professionals
    (2021-08) Adamchick, Julie; Perez Aguirreburualde, Maria Sol; Perez, Andres M.; O'Brien, Mary K.
    Scientific research may include the elicitation of judgment from non-academic subject-matter experts in order to improve the quality and/or impact of research studies. Elicitation of expert knowledge or judgment is used when data are missing, incomplete, or not representative for the specific setting and processes being studied. Rigorous methods are crucial to ensure robust study results, and yet the quality of the elicitation can be affected by a number of practical constraints, including the understanding that subject-matter experts have of the elicitation process itself. In this paper, we present a case of expert elicitation embedded within an extended training course for veterinary professionals as an example of overcoming these constraints. The coupling of the two activities enabled extended opportunities for training and a relationship of mutual respect to be the foundation for the elicitation process. In addition, the participatory research activities reinforced knowledge synthesis objectives of the educational program. Finally, the synergy between the two concurrent objectives may produce benefits which transcend either independent activity: solutions and ideas built by local professionals, evolving collaborative research and training approaches, and a network of diverse academic and practicing professionals. This approach has the versatility to be adapted to many training and research opportunities.
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    Self-reporting of risk pathways and parameter values for foot and mouth disease in slaughter cattle from alternative production systems by Kenyan and Ugandan veterinarians
    (2021-08) Adamchick, Julie; Rich, Karl M.; Perez, Andres M.
    Countries in which foot and mouth disease (FMD) is endemic may face bans on the export of FMD-susceptible livestock and products because of the associated risk for transmission of FMD virus. Risk assessment is an essential tool for demonstrating the fitness of one’s goods for the international marketplace and for improving animal health. However, it is difficult to obtain the necessary data for such risk assessments in many countries where FMD is present. This study bridged the gaps of traditional participatory and expert elicitation approaches by partnering with veterinarians from the National Veterinary Services of Kenya (n=13) and Uganda (n=10) enrolled in an extended capacity-building program to systematically collect rich, local knowledge in a format appropriate for formal quantitative analysis. Participants mapped risk pathways and quantified variables that determine the risk of infection among cattle at slaughter originating from each of four beef production systems in each country. Findings highlighted that risk processes differ between management systems, that disease and sale are not always independent events, and that events on the risk pathway are influenced by the actions and motivations of value chain actors. The results provide necessary information for evaluating the risk of FMD among cattle pre-harvest in Kenya and Uganda and provide a framework for similar evaluation in other endemic settings.