Policy Trumps Politics in the Choices of Voters in Democratic Primaries and Caucuses

Jacobs, Lawrence
2004-02-22
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Policy Trumps Politics in the Choices of Voters in Democratic Primaries and Caucuses

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2004-02-22

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The conventional wisdom is that voters in Democratic primaries and caucuses are preoccupied with defeating President George W. Bush. Who can beat Bush is all Democratic voters care about. A close analysis of exit polls from nine Democratic primaries and the Iowa Caucus reveals that government policy dominated judgments about electability or who could beat Bush. In addition, Democratic voters are not fixated on the War in Iraq, as has been widely assumed. The economy and jobs along with health care and Medicare ranked much higher in the minds of voters than the War in Iraq. John Kerry’s success rests with convincing voters in the Democratic primaries and caucuses – a slice of the electorate that tends to be far more liberal than voters in November – that he shares their policy views and is electable. Although Democratic voters were split on whether they agreed with Kerry’s issue positions overall, they overwhelming agreed that he could beat Bush and tended to support his views on the top issues of health care and Medicare, the Iraq War, and, to a lesser extent, the economy and jobs. These findings emerge from exit polling by the National Election Pool, a consortium of five television networks and the Associated Press.

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Center for the Study of Politics and Governance, Humphrey School of Public Affairs, UMN

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Jacobs, Lawrence. (2004). Policy Trumps Politics in the Choices of Voters in Democratic Primaries and Caucuses. Retrieved from the University Digital Conservancy, https://hdl.handle.net/11299/195052.

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